Tuesday, March 22, 2011

Newsweek columnist says Cali Earthquake next

Source: US Geological Survey


Simon Winchester at Newsweek claims that earthquakes come in clusters, and that after Chile, New Zealand and Japan, California is next to be hit by a major quake:
Even more worrisome than geography and topography, though, is geological history. For this event cannot be viewed in isolation. There was a horrifically destructive Pacific earthquake in New Zealand on Feb. 22, and an even more violent magnitude-8.8 event in Chile almost exactly a year before. All three phenomena involved more or less the same family of circum-Pacific fault lines and plate boundaries—and though there is still no hard scientific evidence to explain why, there is little doubt now that earthquakes do tend to occur in clusters: a significant event on one side of a major tectonic plate is often—not invariably, but often enough to be noticeable—followed some weeks or months later by another on the plate’s far side. It is as though the earth becomes like a great brass bell, which when struck by an enormous hammer blow on one side sets to vibrating and ringing from all over. Now there have been catastrophic events at three corners of the Pacific Plate—one in the northwest, on Friday; one in the southwest, last month; one in the southeast, last year.
That leaves just one corner unaffected—the northeast. And the fault line in the northeast of the Pacific Plate is the San Andreas Fault, underpinning the city of San Francisco...There are in consequence a lot of thoughtful people in the American West who are very nervous indeed—wondering, as they often must do, whether the consent that permits them to inhabit so pleasant a place might be about to be withdrawn, sooner than they have supposed.
According to the USGS seismologist Robert Williams, the Hayward fault is more likely to "slip" than the San Andreas fault:
The real threat to the San Francisco Bay region over the next 30 years comes not from a 1906-type earthquake, but from smaller (magnitude about 7) earthquakes occurring on the Hayward fault, the Peninsula segment of the San Andreas fault, or the Rodgers Creek fault.
Couple that with former USGS geologist Berkland's warning of a West Coast earthquake this week.

Meanwhile, an unusually strong earthquake of 6.1 magnitude hit smack dab in the middle of the Atlantic ocean, between South America and Africa earlier today. A 5.1 earthquake followed in the exact same place.




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