Israel bolsters border with Egypt following terror alert

Recent intelligence reveals that an Islamic Jihad terror cell from Gaza is attempting to infiltrate Israel via Sinai. As a result, Israel's navy has sent additional warships to its maritime border with Egypt. Meanwhile, Iran reported yesterday that its warships will make another round in the Red Sea in coming weeks.

Hezbollah moving missiles to Lebanon

Fearing the fall of Assad's regime and the establishment of a pro-West, anti-Hezbollah government in its place, Hezbollah is reported to be moving its missiles from Syria to Eastern Lebanon. According to a report published in the French newspaper Le Figaro over the weekend, intelligence agencies have monitored movement of trucks from Syria to Lebanon containing long-range Iranian Zilzal, Fajr 3 and Fajr 4 missiles. The report also cites that Hezbollah is concerned Israel will bomb the convoys in transit from Syria to Lebanon.

On Friday, the European Union expanded sanctions against Syria's political and military leaders. Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Muallem related that Syria considers the sanctions "act of war". A declaration adopted at the EU summit in Brussels condemned the violence, assuring that "those responsible for crimes and violence against civilians shall be held accountable." European Union representatives also called for the UN Security Council to adopt a resolution condemning the crackdown.

Meanwhile, Syrian troops stormed villages near the Syria-Turkey border towards the end of last week, raising the influx of Syrian refugees to Turkey to a total of 12,000. US Secratary of State Hillary Clinton warned that Syrian troop build-up raises the likelihood of a border clash between Syria and Turkey. The EU similarly called for maximum restraint after Syrian military activity near the Turkish border. Diplomats in Ankara and Beirut perceived Syrian activity near the border as a veiled threat against Turkey, who has been vocal in calling for reforms. And Syria is showing no signs of reigning in; on Saturday evening the Syrian military stormed yet another village near the Turkish border. 

Walter Russel Mead at Via Meadia makes the case that Syria fulfills all the invasion criteria of Libya, and some. Assad's crackdown on protests amounts to a grave humanitarian crisis, and the fall of his regime plays into American national interest. Regime change in Syria would be a blow to the Shi'a-aligned crescent from Iran to Lebanon. In the words of Walter Mead, "Both in substance and in the way it was handled the Libyan intervention makes a Syrian intervention both harder to pull off and harder to avoid."

Divine Providence and the Iranian Nuclear Program: A Roundup

Mushroom cloud from the atomic bomb at Nagasaki

In Aristotelian philosophy, God is the unmoved mover, whose act of constant self-contemplation is the object desire of the entire universe and thereby the purpose of its existence and motion. Despite the fact that the deity's self-contemplation is continuous and all-encompassing, it is thought to be a paradox that God could have particular knowledge of this world, since that would so to speak 'lower' Him from His lofty level.

In Jewish sources, this paradox is embraced, and God is conceived of as both lofty, transcendent, complete and perfect, and at the same time, possessing full and complete knowledge of the world to the greatest detail. God's knowledge of this world can be compared to a person's effortless awareness of the limbs of his own body. (Yet as opposed to a person, who knows only the feeling of his limbs, a more appropriate yet still incomplete metaphor would be an imaginary all-knowing scientist, who knew every microscopic detail of all the processes transpiring in his physical being).

In any event, Judaism posits that there is no contradiction between a perfect, transcendent God and His complete knowledge of this world. What's more, God's knowledge of this world is inseparable from His overseeing of this world. If we were to extend the metaphor, this would be a mega-scientist, who is not only all-knowing of his internal processes, but also has the supernatural ability to control these processes--more precisely, whose very awareness of these processes is also the means by which they come into being. In other words, God's contemplation of the world is at the same time God's direction of the world, such that there is not a blade of grass over which there is not an angel telling it: grow, grow! 

If God's intimate knowledge applies to nature, all the more so for the human being, the pinnacle of nature, created in the divine image. And if God's providence extends over all of humanity, all the more so for the Jewish people, the apple of God's eye, and for Israel, the political entity whose growth is both the manifestation and the springboard for the ultimate redemption of the Jewish people and the world. The Land of Israel - the land over which God's eyes rest, from the beginning of the year to the end of the year.

The Hebrew word for Divine Providence, hashgacha, derives from a Hebrew root related to no other words of the language. The verb form of the word, hishgiach--to watch over--appears as a description of the Beloved of the Song of Songs (2:9):

My beloved is like a gazelle or a young hart; behold, he stands behind our wall, he looks in (=mashgiach) through the windows, he peers through the lattice=

According to some interpretive traditions, God is compared to a gazelle because a gazelle runs off with its head turned backwards, its gaze locked on the point from where it escaped. In this sense, the verses about the gazelle in the Song of Songs correspond to the Jewish people's cry to God: If you are to run off (as it appears that the Divine Presence departed after the destruction of the Second Temple), then please, we beg you to do so as a gazelle, and continue to gaze back at us, despite the distance between us. In this sense, God's gazing, or the Divine Providence discernible in an individual's life and in a nation's history, is the reshimu - the impression left of the Divine Presence in the world, after its contraction and despite its hiding. The task that remains for us is to discern God's involvement in our lives on both a personal, national and global level--and if the destruction of the Temple meant the disappearance of such clarity, then the reconstruction of such clarity is the reconstruction of the Temple. A person who has knowledge - it is if the Temple has been rebuilt in his days.


March 12, 2011: Japan's nuclear program received a massive blow when a tsunami hit its Fukushima nuclear power plant and led to an international nuclear crisis on par with Chernobyl. One less-known facet of Japan's nuclear energy program is the country's ties with Iran: Several weeks before the Fukushima accident, Japan's deputy minister for foreign affairs, Bessho Koro, visited Tehran to meet with Iranian Foreign minister Ali Akbar Salehi and carry the message of a pro-Iran Japan. Moreover, one month prior to the Fukushima meltdown, a Washington source anonymously disclosed that Japan and Iran had recently agreed that 70% of Iran's low enriched uranium would be moved to Japan and delivered back to Iran in the form of nuclear fuel rods, intended for "medical use". 

May 9, 2011: Iran's first-ever nuclear power plant in Bushehr begins fuel consumption, and is slated to begin to generate electricity in two months' time. Less than a day after the plant became active, a 4.8 earthquake hit the city of Reig in the Bushehr province, not far from the plant. The earthquake occurred not long after Japan's tsunami led to an international nuclear crisis at the Fukushima plant. Days before Bushehr was activated, the French ambassador to the IAEA expressed concern regarding the Bushehr plant. A week earlier, after a cooling plant at Bushehr shattered, an expert on Iranian nuclear issues for the Carnegie Endowment emphasized the international community's concerns on Russia's decision to move forward on Bushehr.

June 23, 2011: Russian news sources reported that five Russian scientists who assisted in the design of the Bushehr plant were among the victims of Monday's plane crash near Petrozavodsk in northern Russia. According to YNet, the five nuclear experts were the individuals responsible for ensuring the plant would withstand natural disasters. (The Bushehr nuclear power plant is located at the junction of three tectonic plates along the Persian Gulf). Russian news sources reported the deaths were "a great blow to the Russian nuclear industry." 

Yet despite the connection between the Iranian nuclear program and the crash, Russian investigators are not pointing fingers. Investigators have thus attributed the crash to human error and technical malfunction. According to a Russian source: "Although Iranian nuclear scientists have in the past been involved in unexplained accidents and plane crashes, there is no official suspicion of foul play."

Because sometimes, Hashem is the best Mossad operative.

Iran will attack Turkey if they intervene in Syria

In recent weeks a number of military and diplomatic developments around the Mediterranean suggest a key role for Turkey in combating Assad's violent crackdown on protests, and the subsequent Iranian-Syrian backlash in its wake. Below is a summary of the latest developments in tensions between Iran/Syria camp and Turkey/NATO/US:

Adapated from the About Crazy World Blog: 

1. Iranian/Hezbollah media says they will attack Turkey if they intervene in Syria 

2. Since Turkey is a member of NATO, if Turkey is attacked, NATO is required to respond. This could explain the recent US fleet movement in the Mediterranean.

3. Syrian tanks have pushed toward more towns near the Turkish border. On Friday of last week, after the Syrian army entered the town of Jisr al-Shughour close to the Turkey border,  al-Jazeera quoted the Turkish President Abdullah Gul as saying Turkey is "ready for all scenarios including military ones" to handle the Syrian crisis.

4. Meanwhile, Turkish Foreign Ministry has called a special meeting of Arab and Western ambassadors to discuss the situation in Syria.

5. The Arab League issued the first condemnation of Syria violence

6. According to Debka File, On Monday, June 13, the US deployed the USS Bataan amphibian air carrier strike vessel opposite Syria’s Mediterranean coast with 2,000 marines, 6 war planes, 15 attack helicopters, including new V-22 Ospreys, and 27 choppers for landing forces aboard. Also this week, US naval units went operational in the Aegean, Adriatic and Black Seas as part of the joint US-Ukrainian Sea Breeze 2011 exercise. The USS Monterrey cruiser armed with Aegis surface missile interceptors has additionally been stationed in the Black Sea. Western sources additonally report a build-up of ship-borne anti-missile missile strength in the Mediterranean basin. 

7. Turkish Prime Minister Tayyep Erdogan is averse to be seen working hand in glove militarily with any US interference in Syria. At the same time, Western intelligence sources in the Persian Gulf are sure Washington is coordinating its military movements with Ankara and that Erdogan quietly agreed to place Turkish bases at US disposal for an operation in Syria.

8. On Tuesday, Iran capped these events with three separate warnings to the Obama administration against military interference in Syria. Foreign Ministry Spokesman Ramin Mehman-Parast said Tuesday: “The Americans are not allowed to launch a military intervention in any country of the region including Syria.” Iran’s ground forces commander Brig. Gen. Kioumars Heidari added this threat: Any new military move by the US in the region will impose heavy costs on the country far greater than the costs it paid in Iraq and Afghanistan.”

See here for the latest on Turkish-Syrian relations

Syria's silent screams

'Thank you BBC'

In Syria, foreign, local and online media are virtually absent as a result of unprecedented government clampdown on protest activity. The latest source of information is from Syrian refugees who have fled to other parts of the Arab world, both for their own safety and in order to spread the message about the atrocities occurring in their homeland.

On Sunday, Syria shelled towns near the Lebanese border, and on Monday, Syrian moved tanks into rural areas near the Lebanese border, its latest focus in suppressing countrywide protests. As a result of the deteriorating security situation near the Syrian-Lebanese border, many Syrians have fled to Lebanon in recent days. According to Al Jazeera, 5,000 Syrians have fled to Lebanon since protests began.

"The situation ... is catastrophic,'' said Ahmad, 55, who crossed the border into Lebanon overnight Monday and asked to be identified only by his first name.

"If you walk in the streets of Talkalakh [Syrian border town shelled on Sunday] you can smell the dead bodies,'' he said.

Authorities justified the siege by saying the town was full of Islamic extremists who wanted to form an Islamic state, residents told the AP news agency.

One resident said the conflict in Talkalakh had taken on dangerous sectarian tones.
Hamid, 45, who also asked to be identified only by his first name, said pro-government armed men known as "shabiha'' were targeting Sunnis in the town.

Today, a mass grave was found in the main protest city of Daraa in Syria, where Syrian security forces have clamped down on residents' freedom of movement and enforced strict curfews. Nadim Houry of Human Rights Watch reports on CNN on the testimonies of those who managed to escape from Syria to Jordan:

Mohannad finally managed to escape the southern city of Daraa on May 9, two weeks after the Syrian army had surrounded the city and cut electricity, phone lines and Internet services, preventing movement into and out of the city. "The situation in Daraa is indescribable," he told us from neighboring Jordan.

With six other men, he had taken shelter in Daraa's sewers May 7 to avoid the Syrian forces, who were forcing their way into homes and detaining the town's men. He emerged 13 hours later to return home, only to find that tanks were surrounding his neighborhood.

He decided to escape. With about 50 other Daraa residents, including women and children, he walked across fields to reach the Jordanian border near Tel Shehab at midday May 9. "The Syrian security forces opened fired on us as we neared the border," he said. "I think they killed 11 people. I am not sure. I just ran for my life."

The situation in Syria is a disgrace to world powers claiming to stand by the forces of democracy and human rights in the Middle East. Yet there's a reason Syria is taking the West so long, and it's not only the embarrassing lack of media attention. The U.S. and the rest of the West know that a Libya-style attack on Syria is an indirect attack on Iran. That's not to say it won't happen -- but the West needs to have its guarantees that it is ready for such a confrontation. Stay tuned for allusions to Iran as the dark side of the Middle East in Obama's upcoming speech, and be sure that Palestinians are not the only, and not even the top issue on the Bibi-Barack table in Washington this week.

Iran turns on Bushehr, quake hits

On Sunday, Iran's first-ever nuclear power plant near the gulfside city of Bushehr began fuel consumption for the first time since construction began in 1975. The Bushehr plant was started in 1975 by German contractors, but construction was brought to a halt after Iran's Islamic Revolution in 1979. In 1995, the Russia began to oversee resumed construction of the plant.

The Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant is located at the junction of three tectonic plates along the Persian Gulf, 11 miles outheast of the city of Bushehr. On Monday morning, 02:47 local time, less than a day after the plant became active, a 4.8 earthquake hit the city of Reig in the Bushehr province. See map below for just how close the earthquake (A) was to the power plant (B):


View Larger Map


Iran boasts that the plant is quake-proof and will not experience a situation similar to that of the Daichi plant in Fukushima, Japan. Yet only three days ago, before the plant began to operate, the French ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency, Florence Mangin, expressed concern regarding the Bushehr plant in the context of global nuclear security. According to Mangin, Iran is unwilling to adhere to key conventions regarding nuclear activities.

On Sunday, a cooling pump shattered at the Bushehr plant, forcing a shutdown during its initial start-up phase. According to Mark Hibbs, an expert on Iranian nuclear issues at the Carnegie Endowment for World Peace, the pump failure “raises questions about the decisions the Russians made to move forward with emergency coolant system that’s 30 years old."

According to Bloomberg, experts' safety concerns hinge on the plant's hybrid design, Iran's reluctance to join international safety monitoring programs, and the unknown reliability of some of the original components. According to Bill Horak, chariman of the nuclear cience and technology department at Brookhaven National Library in New York, Russians used old parts supplied by the Germans in the 1970's in order to cut costs on the plant's construction.

Countries concerned in particular about the plant's safety include Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, who would be affected within hours of a potential radiation leak at Bushehr, according to the Kuwait Center for Strategic studies. Long-term contamination in the Gulf could prove fatal, as gulf states rely on desalinated freshwater for their water needs. In the present situation, surrounding countries are forced to count on shaky Iranian promises and Russian certification.

According to Moscow Defense Brief, the US viewed Russia's involvement in Bushehr as indirect support for the Iranian nuclear arms program, and until 2005 Washington exerted significant pressure on Russia to stop the project and urged other countries to ban their companies from taking part. Yet in 2005, after Moscow and Tehran signed a deal under which spent fuel would be returned to Russia, the US lifted its opposition. Under the arrangement, Russia provides the nuclear fuel from the plant and Russian experts will run the plant for several years.

An official launch ceremony for the plant was held in August of last year. After the launch ceremony, the former head of Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence--the organization now "interrogating" bin Laden's widows--celebrated the launch, declaring: "Iran's nuclear gains benefit Muslims".

In the week leading up to the launch ceremony, US Ambassador to the UN John Bolton warned that Israel only has days to strike the plant, as an attack on the plant after fuel has been delivered would trigger widespread radiation.

Four women shot dead at all-women demonstration in Syria

On Sunday, Syrian security forces tanks intensified suppression of anti-Assad demonstrations, including at one all-female protest, in which four women were shot dead.

A senior Western diplomat quoted in the guardian said Iran is advising Assad on how to crush dissent, citing an increase in the number of Iranian personnel present in Syria since protests began. Tactics similar to those used by Iran include door-to-door raids, which have increased in past weeks, and blocking mobile and communications and internet service. According to the diplomat's assessment, Iran is concerned about losing its most important ally in the Arab world, and its conduit for supplying weapons to Hezbollah. Syria's population is 75% Sunni, while the ruling Assad family hails from the Shia minority. Iran's regime is the bastion of Shia Islam in the Arab world.

Over 800 people have been killed since demonstrations began in mid-March.

So far, the US and European Union have enacted sanctions on Syrian leaders but have refrained from calling for Assad to step down. Foreign media have been banned from the country.

Bin Laden, Afghanistan, and the new war on terror

US Dept. of Defense Central Command Responsibility Map

Prior to the bin Laden raid, Pakistani-U.S. relations were strained after an escalation in U.S. air strikes on Taliban strongholds along the Pakistani-Afghan border, in which Pakistani civilian casualties were not uncommon. In April, Pakistani Army Chief General Ashqaf Kayani ordered the U.S. to stop the use of drones and expel troops from the country. The U.S. was caught in a quagmire: On the one hand, the war Afghanistan could not be won without monitoring the Pakistani-Afghan border--as evidenced by the site of bin Laden's hideout in Abbottabad, Pakistan. On the other hand, Pakistan is a sovereign country, whose goodwill and cooperation was essential to U.S. counterterrorism efforts in Pakistan proper.

According to the UK Daily Mail, the bin Laden raid was directly preceded by a string of visits of US officials and senior generals to Pakistan to discuss growing tensions. One week prior to the raid, U.S. General David Petraeus and his Pakistani counterpart met in a heavily guarded airbase in Pakistan. After the meeting, the US embassy lauded the generals' relationship. Some say Petraeus informed Kayani of the raid, explaining why despite the anger and emberassment of Pakistani politicians, no military response against the U.S. has surfaced.

What did the U.S. and Pakistan have to gain from a bin Laden kill (or, for the skeptics out there--a bin Laden kill story)? On Thursday, Pakistan's army decided to reduce US troops in the country to the essential minimum. On Friday, the Pentagon offered that it was up to Pakistan whether US troops would remain there or not.

With the backdrop of growing unrest in the Arab world, the U.S. military is now strained on three fronts, none of which appear to lead to victory: Iraq, Afghanistan, and Libya. The war in Afghanistan was launched to capture bin Laden and destory al-Qaeda in Afghanistan. Bin Laden's gone, and much of al-Qaeda's infrastructure in Afghanistan has been long gone. In fact, many say the effect of the Afghan war has been none other than to relocate Al-Qaeda to Yemen.

The U.S. needs to free up its military resources -- personnel, technology and funds -- to deal with the Arab front. Libya may not be in the current interest of the American public, but it will become increasingly that the Arab street cannot solve its problems on its own, and that unchecked unrest will open the gates of Yemen's Al Qaeda camps to surrounding countries--and no American wants another 9/11. Yesterday in Syria, 36 protesters were killed. Today, tanks entered one Syrian town and cut off phone and electricity as punishment to demonstrators. According to Hilal Khasha, professor of political Science at American University in Beirut, “A collapse of the Syrian regime is a doomsday scenario for the entire Middle East.’’ Civil war in Syria could spread to Lebanon, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and worse--and the U.S. knows it needs to influence the outcome.

After Libya, Obama and his aides learned the hard way how reluctant the American public and Congress are to start a third front. Future interventions could only be successful if one of the lingering fronts bore some fruit -- and what better fruit than Enemy of the State par excellence? The problem is, the war in Afghanistan may be an insurmountable challenge for U.S. ground troops, but it cannot be so easily abandoned. Days after the bin Laden raid, the Taliban carried out a coordinated attack involving six suicide bombers who took over an Afghani governor's office. Not quite the environment for the U.S. to slip out the back door.

However, that may be just what the U.S. has to do. Afghanistan and Pakistan will need to be monitored, but the question is whether U.S. troops are the ones to do the job. In an ideal U.S. world, Pakistan will cooperate with U.S. officials in counter-terrorism efforts, and NATO will clean up the post-bin Laden damage Afghanistan. Meanwhile, the U.S. can claim a victory in the war on terror, instill in the minds of Americans that wars are successful and necessary, and move on to far greater threats.

The U.S. needs to find the right balance between respecting Arab sovereignty and not alienating the moderate Arab public on the one hand, and soliciting Arab support in the war on terror on the other. The backroom conversations leading up to the bin Laden raid represent what may have been the first success of this new strategy. Let's hope that the U.S. finds the levelheaded generals and politicians westward to empower regimes who share an interest in squelching Iran and al-Qaeda. The moderate Arab world may not be Israel's best friend, but right now, they are their worst enemy's enemy.

Israel denies reports of fighter jets preparing for Iran attack

IR40 Heavy Water reactor facility, near Arak, Iran

According to Press TV, Iranian state television's website, Israeli fighter jets were seen in Iraq preparing for an attack on Iran:

A considerable number of Israeli warplanes were seen at al-Asad base in Iraq, reported a source close to prominent Iraqi cleric Muqtada al-Sader's group. The aircraft reportedly included F-15, F-16, F-18, F-22, and KC-10 jet fighters. The warplanes carried out their week-long exercises at nights, the same source added.

The drills were reportedly aimed at preparing to strike Iran's air defense systems, disrupt Iran's radars and attack targets deep inside Iran.

Iraqi officials had not been notified of the exercises, which were conducted in collaboration with the US military. The United States maintains numerous bases in Iraq, and the Baghdad government is not involved in any of the military deployments taking place there. 

However, according to Haaretz, both Israel and Iran deny the reports:

Israel said it had no knowledge of such a strike plan and Iraq's air force commander denied the Iranian report...An Israeli army spokeswoman said she had no knowledge of any such report and said the military did not comment on operational matters.

Iraqi air force commander Staff Lieutenant General Anwar Ahmed rejected the report as "groundless". "The al-Asad base (mentioned by Press TV) exists on Iraqi territory. We can never accept launching any military attack against any of the neighboring countries, whether Iran or any other country, from Iraqi lands," he told Reuters. 

If we do get around to bombing Iran, can we please call it Operation Arak?

Holocaust Remembrance Day in the shadow of Iran

So far it has been quite an eventful Holocaust Remembrance Day: The #1 Enemy of the free world has been reportedly killed, and Iranian TV ran a story that Israeli fighter jets were gathering in Iraq to attack Iran.

In New York, an assembly of Jewish groups gathered to learn and act on the key lesson of the Holocaust - Never Again. In 2011, despite an atmosphere of euphoria and deep-seated denial among liberal elements, the Jewish people are not in any less danger than we were in 1933. What's more, Ahmadinejad is even more open about his intentions than Hitler was, freely proclaiming to the world his mission to "wipe Israel off the map" one day, and his intentions to build nuclear weapons the next.

Kol HaKavod to the American people and their leaders who gathered today at the Iranian mission of the U.N. to call the world's attention to the real threat of another Holocaust, what is perhaps a final call for all who stand with us to do all in our power to stop Iran and its men-on-the-ground, Hezbollah and Hamas:

Hundreds gathered for a solemn vigil at the Iranian Mission to the United Nations on Sunday afternoon in New York City, to mark Holocaust Remembrance Day. An Israeli flag was held aloft by participants, and several feet away stood six burning torches, representing the six million Jews murdered by the Nazis during World War II. 

...Decrying the "hypocrisy of the UN and the whole world", Rep. Nadler declared, "we must take any action to ensure that there is no second Holocaust," and said that "all options should be on the table" as far as stopping Iran is concerned.

"Remembering the Holocaust is quite commendable, but what is needed now is a bold plan of Jewish activism," said Rep. Hikind, a former member of the Jewish Defense League. "Our enemies are closing in on us at blinding speed and our very existence as a people is at stake and no Jewish organizations have offered a concrete plan of action. 

The son of a survivor of Auschwitz, Hikind added: "We are an orphaned generation. What the Jewish community is sorely lacking today is authentic Jewish leadership, that was epitomized by Rabbi Meir Kahane, of blessed memory. We need organizations and leaders who can mobilize thousands of Jews to take to the streets near the United Nations in September and declare our collective outrage over the proposed unilateral vote on the creation of a Palestinian state that is sworn to destroy Israel and the Jewish people."

Also the son of a survivor, Rabbi Schwartz of Congregation Ohev Tzedek warned that "Ahmadinejad wants to visit a new Holocaust on Israel while denying the veracity of the Holocaust that happened 70 years ago. We must act to transform Yom HaShoah into Yom Ha'Atzmaut; a day of darkness into a day of light."

"Israel, which sends healing across the world in times of crises, has become a pariah state", said Rabbi Lerner of Young Israel of Great Neck. "Amalek lives on in the form of Ahmadinejad and others who represent an existential peril to Israel."

Rabbi Polakoff of the Great Neck Synagogue stated, "Remembering the Holocaust on Yom HaShoah is a misnomer. We must remember the lessons of this chapter of Jewish history every single day. If we don't remember, who will?"  (Israel National News)

Not one nation alone stood against the Jewish people throughout history, but in every generation our enemies stand against us to destroy us, but the Holy Blessed One saves us from their hands. May all of Am Yisrael join even closer together in times of hardship, and in the merit of our forefathers and all the great tzaddikim who were killed in sanctification of God's name in the Holocaust and in all turmoils our people have faced, in their merit may Hashem save us in these times as in the past, and bring our Redeemer and full Redemption with no delay.

Operation Cast Lead 2?

Haaretz: 'Israel may have to launch a fresh operation against Gaza'

Vice Premier Silvan Shalom told Israel Radio that the situation recalled the run-up to Israel's 2008-2009 Gaza war, which killed around 1,400 Palestinians. Hamas had mostly held fire from the enclave since. "We may have to consider a return to that operation," Shalom told Israel Radio. "I say this despite the fact that I know such a thing would, of course, bring the region to a far more combustible situation." If the rocket fire continues, Israel would have to embark on a wide-scale operation to topple the Hamas regime, Shalom told Israeli Radio. The operation would have to target leaders and commanders of terrorist movements, said Shalom, rather than just tunnels and open areas.

Culture Minister Limor Livnat echoed Shalom's remarks, saying Israel may have no choice but to launch Operation Cast Lead 2 if the rocket fire continued.

Haaretz: A small war is starting along the Gaza border

The more time that passes and the larger the number of casualties, the harder it will be to stop the escalation.

A grad rocket fired from Gaza hit Be'er Sheva early Wednesday morning. It landed in a parking lot one person was moderately wounded.

Last night, terrorists launched a first grad rocket onto Ashdod. Residents of southern Israel were warned earlier to stay near shelters in anticipation of such an attack. The Islamic Jihad y"s took responsibility for both rockets.

Ashdod is even further north of Ashkelon, where a rocket struck earlier this evening.

Also this evening, the IDF attacked a terror cell preparing to launch a rocket into Israel, killing four known terrorists.

Is Hamas looking for trouble while the US invades Libya? Would an Israeli incursion into Gaza achieve the effect of presenting the West/Israel against the Arab world across the Mediterranean? 

We'll follow this closely. 

Japan supported Iran's nuclear program, promised fuel rods

The foreign ministers on Japan and Iran met in Tehran in late February

Today, the Fukushima reactor's spent fuel rod pool reached boiling point, raising new fears that the pool's water will evaporate and the fuel rods will become exposed, which could lead to dangerous radiation emission levels. Last week the IAEA warned that if the reactor continued to emit radiation, the health hazard to the USA may have to be reassessed.

Before Japan's nuclear crisis, the world was facing a less hyped, although potentially even more dangerous nuclear crisis -- the threat of a nuclear Iran. An unstable, whimsical, boisterous dictator was engaging in a covert nuclear weapons program, while calling freely to wipe the Jewish state off the map -- and the world barely blinked an eye.

Isn't it interesting then, to discover that the two nuclear crises are related.

Several weeks before the Fukushima accident, Japanese deputy minister for foreign affairs Bessho Koro visited Tehran to meet with Iranian Foreign minister Ali Akbar Salehi and carry the message of a pro-Iran Japan (after all, if it's profitable, why not?):

The Japanese deputy foreign minister said Japan supports Iran's nuclear energy program and added that Iran has the right to use nuclear energy for peaceful purposes. He went on to say that Tokyo is determined to develop ties with Tehran. Salehi and Koro also discussed the latest regional developments and called for the expansion of cooperation between the two countries in all spheres.

What exactly are the latest regional developments? Iran suppressing democratic protests? The threat of Iranian-funded terrorism taking hold in the new chaos facing the Middle East? Gaza firing Iranian rockets on Israel? Where exactly are the regional developments that create an environment conducive between anything resembling the 21st-century world with one of the most oppressive and unstable regimes on the planet?!

And here's what was in the works last February (via Israel Matzav):

Politico: Japan emerges as key player on Iran

Under the alleged compromise fuel swap deal that Japanese diplomats quietly briefed U.S. officials on earlier this month, some 70% of Iran’s low enriched uranium stockpile would be moved to Japan, according to what one Washington source, speaking anonymously, was told by the Japanese. Japan would then take responsibility for the stockpile, and ensure the delivery to Iran of fuel rods for nuclear medical use.

If there were any plans in the works for Japan to supply Iran with fuel rods for "medical use", the earthquake, tsunami and nuclear crisis "wiped them off the face of the earth", so to speak. In the Politico article, there's an interesting fact mentioned that creates an eerie connection between the future of Egypt and the latest nuclear crisis:

In addition, in November, a Japanese diplomat, Yukio Amano, succeeded Mohamed ElBaradei to become director general of the IAEA, in effect the top international nuclear negotiator in the world.

El Baradei, or the soft-on-Iran nuclear watchdog impostor, and the poster child for the Muslim Brotherhood's PR campaign in seizing control of the new Egypt. Hashem works in interesting ways...


Meanwhile, Bill Koenig has tracked Japan's deplorable track record of denying Israel's right to build and defend itself. Check out what the Japanese foreign ministry had to say on March 11, 2010 - exactly one year to the day prior to when the earthquake and tsunami hit:

The Government of Japan deplores the decisions of the Government of Israel to give permission for the construction of 1,600 housing units in East Jerusalem in addition to 112 units in West Bank just after the Israeli and Palestinian leadership’s acceptance of the start of indirect talks. The Government of Japan does not recognize any act that prejudges the final status of Jerusalem and the territories in the pre-1967 borders. Japan demands that the plans should not be implemented.

One message does seem to be clear from recent disasters: hey, idyllic countries far off there: stop using your God-given blessings to pick on Israel. God's kingship in today's world may be the most hidden it has ever been, but those with a pure and deep faith, a faith bequeathed to us from our ancestors, rooted deep in the the Jewish soul, cultivated throughout the ages precisely for days such as these, know without a shadow of a doubt that lo yanum v'lo yishan Shomer Yisroel -- no, the Guardian of Israel does not slumber! -- and even though galus feels like a state of slumber and abandonment, we know without a doubt that God is right here, about to save us from all our enemies, as present and as real as He was when He spoke to our people at Sinai, aware of our suffering and clearing the way for our geulah. The days are near when all the words of all the prophets regarding the Jewish people -- and the fall of their enemies -- will come true before our very eyes. May it be so speedily in our days. 

A modern-day Esther? Palin and Netanyahu to dine on Purim

Sheya points out that Palin's dinner with Netanyahu is scheduled for Monday evening, when it is still Purim in Jerusalem...does this mean Palin is participating in a Purim seudah?

The traditional Purim seudah was a celebration to mark Esther's extraordinary efforts on behalf of the Jewish people to foil Haman's (Ahmedinijad's?) evil schemes. Esther was able to have such influence by virtue of her incognito royal role, which she landed as a result of her exquisite beauty and charm.

Is there any woman more active today than Sarah Palin in standing up for Israel? Palin has supported Israel's right to build from the beginning, citing that "more and more Jewish people will be flocking to Israel in the days and weeks and months ahead." In that case, it's quite fitting that she dine with the 'king' of Israel on this auspicious day.

Is Palin being prepared by Hashem for a key role on the world stage for the good of the Jewish people? For more on this, see Shirat Devorah: Sarah Palin, A Sign of Mashiach

And more importantly, is Sarah Palin Jewish?! This site suggests Palin's mother's maternal grandfather was a Lithuanian Jewish immigrant.

A freilichin Purim

ומרדכי יצא מלפני המלך בלבוש מלכות ועטרת זהב

ליהודים היתה אורה ושמחה וששון ויקר כן תהיה לנו!!!!!

Syria nuclear sites exposed in new report

According to YNet, the US Institute for Science and International Security has discovered 4 additional nuclear sites in Syria aside from the one Israel bombed in 2007. The ISIS report encourages the IAEA to "clearly conclude that that Syria may have egregiously violated its safeguards agreement and call for a special inspection of these four sites." The Wall Street Journal predicts the report will lead to increased pressure on Syria at the upcoming IAEA board meeting in March. Considering this new information, Syria's rejection to allow inspectors could result in Syria being declared noncompliant to UN standards and subjected to formal censuring by the UN Security Council.

How, in this situation, can the Obama/the UN/Europe/the world/Israel sit back and permit nuclear-aspiring rogue Iran to sail freely to nuclear-aspiring rogue Syria, with no inspection of cargo by any international or national entity?

Israel reacts to Iran warhips (latest updates)

Iranian warship passing through Suez on Tuesday (Twitter)

Times are Jerusalem/Cairo (GMT+2)

Thursday 12:30: Rabbi Nir Ben Artzi via Tomer Devorah:

The Iranian ships are not coming for no reason. They're ocming to check if, in truth, Tzahal is strong and alert like it's told about Tzahal in the world. They want to see the strength and response of Tzahal.

Thursday 9:30: Barak to CNN: 

If they (Iranians) were bringing rockets or explosives or weapons to Hamas or Hezbollah we would have probably acted against them, but they are just coming – with weapons on them – but they are coming with navy cadets to visit a Syrian port; it's a way of projecting not power but self-confidence and certain assertiveness in the region.

Wednesday 23:00 Iranian warships have reached Syria. The Iranian Navy Commander is also scheduled to arrive in Syria.

Wednesday 2:30 According to the WSJ, Israeli media said the navy would track the Iranian ships but not confront them as they moved north.

Iran's official news channel quoted the deputy commander of the army: "The world should know that the presence of Iranian warships in the Suez Canal has taken place…through the deep guidance of the Supreme Leader [Ayatollah Ali Khamenei]"

Deputy Prime Minister Moshe Yaalon said: "It certainly doesn't bode well," and: "These two ships are not an immediate threat."

Wednesday 0:30  According to UPI, Israel's announcement on Tuesday that it successfully tested its Arrow anti-ballistic weapon may have been intended a timely demonstration of its military might as Iranian warships deploy in the Mediterranean.

19:00 Tuesday Canal officials have reported that the two warships finished their journey through the Suez Canal at 16:00 today and are now in the Mediterranean.

 
12:00 Tuesday The NYT reports that the passage of two Iranian warships towards the Mediterranean were greeted by an initial silence in Jerusalem (perhaps that's because some things are best kept from the press, i.e. the NYT, until they go down?) The NYT reports that an Barak aide reiterated today what Barak's comments in  interview with Fox News last week, namely that the events should not be blown out of proportion: 

We see it [the passage of the Iranian ships through Suez] as something that shouldn't have happened, but if it's happened we shouldn't blow it up beyond it's real weight. And probably they stopped. The last report is that they stopped before entering the canal probably didn't get the approvals and probably they will come back in few days.

 While reading the activist journalism of the NYT, keep in mind:

(1) These comments were made last week, before Egypt actually let the warships through for the first time in 32 years 

(2) The NYT, like the Barak aide, have an interest in playing down this event, simply because they are stuck in Israeli apologetics

3) Both the NYT and Barak's team are politically motivated, each for their own reasons, in sidelining Lieberman, a hawkish figure on the Israeli political scene (read: the only person in the government who states things as they are to the world, and leaves kissing-up to all the others), who alluded last week to a possible Israeli strike.

If Barak lets these ships through, it could be a setback for Israel, from the perspective of regional power dynamics (in a sense, this is even more the case after Lieberman said what he said). And in the Middle East, unfortunately, many events hinge on a perceived weakening (or strengthening) of Israel.

5:45 Tuesday According to BBC, canal officials have reported that two Iranian warships have entered the Suez Canal to make a passage to the Mediterranean Sea.They entered the canal at 5:45am Jerusalem/Cairo time (0345 GMT).

The Dialectic of Rome and Jerusalem

Sack of Jerusalem, from the Arch of Titus in Rome

If someone tells you that both Caesarea (the Roman colonial capital of Judea) and Jerusalem are in ruins or that both are inhabited, do not believe him. But if he says that Caesarea is in ruins and Jerusalem is inhabited or that Caesarea is inhabited and Jerusalem is in ruins, believe him, as it says, 'I shall be filled with her that is laid waste' - If one is full, the other is in ruins, if one is in ruins, the other is full (Megillah 6a)

Rav Nachman said: Initially, when they brought wine libations from Judah , their wine never became sour. but now it is the wine of the Edomites that does not become sour, as it says: 'I shall be filled with her that is laid waste' If one is full, the other is in ruins, if one is in ruins, the other is full (Pesachim 42b)

Rashi: 'I shall be filled with her that is laid waste' this verse (Ezekiel 26:2) begins with 'Tzor said to Jerusalem...I will become full from her destruction' and Tzor is from Edom.

According to Rabbi Avraham Yehoshua Greenbaum, on the pshat level, the Tzor from the verse in Ezekiel that capitalizes on Jerusalem's destruction refers to the Lebanese city of Tyre, the center of maritime trade in the Mediterranean (note the passage of Iranian warships this week through the present-day centers of Mediterranean trade).

However, according to Rabbi Eliezer, "every place in the Bible where tzor is spelled chaser (i.e. without the vav, i.e. tzr instead of tzr), it refers to Edom." (Tanchuma Va-Era ch. 13) Without the vav, Tzar means oppressor, or Rome, which became present-day Western civilization, while the root tzor with a vav means to create, as in the center of trade. 

On the pshat level, "Aha! I shall be filled with her that is laid waste" refers to the destruction of Tyre in the hands of Nebuchadnezzar. However, according to the rabbinic interpretation of the verse in Pesachim and Megillah, the verse refers to Rome's glee at the destruction of Jerusalem and the downfall of Israel. Hashem does not forget; because Rome used Israel's destruction for its own advantage, history will proceed according to the dialectic tension between Rome and Jerusalem.

"אמלאה החרבה"  (יחזקאל כו, ב) אם מלאה זו חרבה זו ואם מלאה זו חרבה זו  (פסחים מ"ב ע"ב)

רש"י: אמלאה החרבה - רישא דקרא יען אמרה צור לירושלים האח וגו' אתמלא מן חורבנה של ירושלים וצור מאדום היא:

אם יאמר לך אדם חרבו שתיהן אל תאמן ישבו שתיהן אל תאמן חרבה קסרי וישבה ירושלים חרבה ירושלים וישבה קסרי תאמן שנאמר (יחזקאל כו, ב) אמלאה החרבה אם מליאה זו חרבה זו אם מליאה זו חרבה זו (מגילה ו ע"א)

בן אדם יען אשר אמרה צר על ירושלים: האח! נשברה דלתות העמים, נסבה אלי אמלאה החרבה (יחזקאל כו, ב)

והמבין יבין She who is wise will understand

Suez Canal hit by Earthquake (or: Earthquakes and Redemption)

At 3 a.m. on Monday morning, a 5.9 earthquake hit the Suez Canal entry and surrounding areas, 48 hours before two Iranian ships are expected to transit the canal to the Mediterranean. The quake lasted for a half hour and caused no damage. Originally, the ships were going to pass through the Canal Monday morning. Now, the ships are scheduled to make the passage early Tuesday morning.

The Suez Canal is the modern-day body of water that connects the Red Sea with the Mediterranean Sea. It is the strategic and economic asset in the region. All of Israel's wars have involved economic or military threats via Suez. Iran's warships are carrying missiles to Syria, but their more significant goal is to take advantage of turmoil in the Middle East to stage a display of power and influence in the region by navigating the various bodies of water unencumbered. If Iran can sail freely through the Mediterranean and deliver weapons to Israel's northern enemies, it might as well be crowned King of the Middle East.

In this highly tense situation, what is the significance of an earthquake, hours before Iran's attempted ascent? In Ezekiel, a large earthquake in Israel is predicted during the war of Gog and Magog. Many have theorized that Iran is the prime aggressor in this apocalyptic war, having made no secret of its stride against Israel. 



According to one interpretation, the Splitting of the Red Sea, the miracle by which the Israelites crossed from Egypt to the Sinai desert to receive the Torah and proceed to the Promised Land, was in fact a tidal earthquake. In 1068, an earthquake in Ramla, Israel was documented in Jewish historical texts as causing water to disappear entirely from the River Jordan, while the Mediterranean "turned to land for two days". Interestingly enough, the earthquake this morning occurred in the Suez Canal, which is the body of water which connects the Red Sea to the Mediterranean Sea, or the sphere of Egypt's influence to the sphere of Israel's influence, which could be seen as a modern-day parallel to the Exodus route.



In Greek thought and polytheistic belief, earthquakes are related to the rage of the gods against humans. In Jewish thought, earthquakes are directly related to moral behavior of human beings. In the Jerusalem Talmud (Berachot 64a), earthquakes are understood as divine retribution for sins of failing to adequately fulfill the commandments associated with living in the Land of Israel, such as tithing, for building mass entertainment hubs on the background of the destruction of the Temple, and for the sin of homosexuality. Furthermore, all sages agree that earthquakes are caused by fissures, divides and arguments among the Jewish people.



Perhaps the most important lesson on earthquakes is found in a famous phrase from Isaiah's description of an earthquake during God's judgment of the earth in the end of days:

רֹעָה הִתְרֹעֲעָה, הָאָרֶץ; פּוֹר הִתְפּוֹרְרָה אֶרֶץ, מוֹט הִתְמוֹטְטָה אָרֶץ. נוֹעַ תָּנוּעַ אֶרֶץ כַּשִּׁכּוֹר, וְהִתְנוֹדְדָה כַּמְּלוּנָה; וְכָבַד עָלֶיהָ פִּשְׁעָהּ, וְנָפְלָה וְלֹא-תֹסִיף קוּם. וְהָיָה בַּיּוֹם הַהוּא, יִפְקֹד יְהוָה עַל-צְבָא הַמָּרוֹם בַּמָּרוֹם; וְעַל-מַלְכֵי הָאֲדָמָה, עַל-הָאֲדָמָה(ישעיה כ"ד י"ט-כ"א)

The earth has broken; the earth has crumbled; the earth shakes. The earth sways like a drunken man, and it sways like a lodge, and its transgression shall weigh down upon it, and it shall fall and not continue to rise. And it shall come to pass on that day, that the Lord shall visit punishment upon the host of heaven on high and upon the kings of the earth on the earth. (Isaiah 24:19-21)

The phrase 'It shall fall and not continue to rise' is a theme throughout Jewish exegesis, whose major current is the spiritual and national revival of Israel. The same phrase appears in the book of Amos, this time seemingly describing Israel herself as falling irreparably (in the Hebrew, the Land and the People are feminine subjects that both take feminine verbs and are therefore used interchangeably in the two verses):

נָפְלָה לֹא תוֹסִיף קוּם בְּתוּלַת יִשְׂרָאֵל נִטְּשָׁה עַל אַדְמָתָהּ אֵין מְקִימָהּ.

She has fallen, shall not continue to rise; the virgin of Israel is abandoned on her soil, there is none to raise her up. (Amos 5,2)

In the Talmud, this verse is interpreted with a profound twist, which turns the deep fall into a deeper rise. In the opening of Masechet Brachot, Rabbi Yochanan explains that the letter Nun (נ) is missing from the acrostic Pslam 145 (Ashrei) because the verse that would have begun with Nun describes the fall of Israel's enemies, as it says in the verse: "She fell and will not rise again": In the West, he explains, this verse was interpreted by parsing the phrase differently: Rather than "She fell, will not continue to rise, Virgin of Israel", the verse is read (which works according to the Hebrew grammar) 'To fall - she will not continue. Rise, Virgin of Israel!" Rabbi Nachman Bar Yitzchak then says that King David knew this teaching by divine prophecy, as the next line he wrote begins with the words: God supports all the fallen.

And this is exactly the dynamic that enables the transition from the seemingly irreparable state of downtroddenness to reattained heights. In Tikkunei Zohar, this very verse is used over and over as signaling Israel's final redemption, which will come from above, when Israel is weak from exile and has almost given up, and in need of divine intervention.

נָפְלָה לֹא תוֹסִיף קוּם, וְלֵית לֵיהּ עִלּוּי וְסִלּוּק אֶלָּא בִידָא דְקוּדְשָׁא בְּרִיךְ הוּא, דְאָזִיל שְׁמָא קַדִּישָׁא לִימִינָא וְאוֹקִים לָהּ. (תיקוני זהר נ,א)

She fell and will not rise again, and she has no way to rise other than in the hands of the Holy Blessed One, whose holy name comes to her right and lifts her up. (Tikkunei Zohar 50,1)

דִּבְזִמְנָא דְאִינוּן יִשְׂרָאֵל מְלוּכְלָכִין בְּטִנּוּפִין דִּשְׁאָר עַמִּין, נִשְׁמָתָא דְאִיהִי שְׁכִינְתָּא אָמְרַת, (שיר א, ו) אַל תִּרְאוּנִי שֶׁאֲנִי שְׁחַרְחֹרֶת, וּצְלוֹתָא נָפְלַת, הֲדָא הוּא דִכְתִיב (עמוס ה, ב) נָפְלָה לֹא תוֹסִיף קוּם בְּתוּלַת יִשְׂרָאֵל, וְכַד נָפְלַת שְׁכִיבַת לְעַפְרָא בֵּין רַגְלִין, וְהָא אוּקְמוּהוּ (רות ג, ז) וַתְּגַל מַרְגְּלוֹתָיו וַתִּשְׁכָּב, וְאִיהִי מְצַלֵּי לְקוּדְשָׁא בְּרִיךְ הוּא דְיוֹקִים לָהּ מֵעַפְרָא, הֲדָא הוּא דִכְתִיב (שם, ט) וּפָרַשְׂתָּ כְנָפֶךָ עַל אֲמָתְךָ כִּי גוֹאֵל אָתָּה. (תיקוני זהר נ,ב)

When Israel are filthy in the dirt of the nations, the soul of the Shechina (the lowest of the 10 divine emanations of God, the Divine Presence in this world) says: Do not look at me, that I am blackened, that prayer has fallen (i.e. the people do not even have the strength or the voice to pray, to call out to God for help), as it is written: 'She has fallen and will not rise again virgin of Israel," and when she fell to lie in the dust between the legs, as it says: "She revealed his ankles and lay down" (Book of Ruth 3:7) -- this is prayer to the Holy Blessed One, He Who Lifts her up from the dust, as it says "And you spread your wings on your servant, for You are a Redeemer" (Ruth 3:9) (Tikkunei Zohar 50,2)

In the Zohar, feet and legs are often metaphors for the Shechina, the last of the ten Divine Emanations (Sefirot) which brought this world into being. Shechina is also associated with speech, prayer and expression, which is both the Divine and human mechanism for bringing worlds into being: for God, through creation, and for humans, through prayer and study. Therefore, according to the Zohar's read, when Ruth revealed Boaz's ankles, this is a metaphor for finding a voice with which to pray, uncovering that which covers God's presence and closeness in any and every situation, and this revelation and expression is what lifts her up form the dust in which she had lay down, signifying her ultimate redemption, as alluded to by the use of the root of 'geulah' = redemption, throughout the book of Ruth.

From these passages we learn that an earthquake is related to the notion of falling. Although the verse from Amos' harsh prophecy seems to paint a doomed picture for Israel, deeper interpretations reveal that it actually signals the LAST fall, the fall from which she will be raised, this time in God's hands. The impetus to the rise that will inevitably follow the fall is prayer, as described by a metaphor of revealing that which is hidden, which brings about the transition from the lying in the dust to coming under God's wings. In summary, an earthquake raises all of these associations, ultimately indicating that the current state of Israel and the Jewish people is but a vehicle for us to reach out to God and rise in an elevation after which there will be no further fall.

In the Kuzari, Rabbi Yehudah HaLevi tells King Kuzar that the Jewish people are in a closer state to God than they would be if they were not in exile (Part 1, 114). The King challenges him: Perhaps I would believe you if Your humility were voluntary, but this sounds like an after-the-fact justification, i.e. you are only "explaining away" your suffering, but surely you would do without it, if you were so able. The Jew responds:

You have touched our weak spot, King of the Kuzar. If the majority of us, as you say, would learn humility towards God and His law from our low station, Providence would not have forced us to bear it for such a long period. Only the smallest portion among us thinks thus. Yet the majority may expect a reward, because they bear their degradation partly from necessity, partly of their own free will. For whoever wishes to do so can become the friend and equal of his oppressor by uttering one word, and without any difficulty. Such conduct does not escape the just Judge. If we bear our exile and degradation for God's sake, as is meet, we shall be the pride of the generation which will come with the Messiah, and accelerate the day of the deliverance we hope for.

The "weak spot" that the Jew describes in the face of the King of Kuzar is one of two times in the Kuzari in which the Jew admits that the King's questions and challenges are accurate. The other place is when the Jew is asked by the King why the people did not jump to return to the Land of Israel:

The King: If what you say is true, surely the Jewish people have fallen short of their duty by not endeavoring to reach that place? Your founding fathers chose it as an abode in preference to their birth places, and lived there as strangers rather than as citizens in their own country. This they did at a time even before the Shechinah was visible, when the country was full of unchastity, impurity, and idolatry; nor did they leave it in times of dearth and famine except through God’s explicit permission, they even directed their bones to be buried there. Yet when Ezra and Nehemiah called the people to return home during the time of the Second Temple they simply weren’t interested in leaving the exile, how could that be?

The Rabbi: Indeed your reproach is a severe one; it is in fact this lack of reaction that ultimately kept the Divine promise with regard to the Second Temple from being fulfilled. Divine Providence was ready to restore everything as it had been at first, if all of our people had willingly consented to return, but only a part was ready to do so, whilst the majority and the aristocracy remained in Babylon, preferring dependence and slavery, and unwilling to leave their houses and their affairs.

Could it be that Hashem is ready to redeem us, and all we have to do is let it happen?

אמר רבי יוחנן מפני מה לא נאמר נו"ן באשרי מפני שיש בה מפלתן של שונאי ישראל דכתיב (עמוס ה, ב) נפלה לא תוסיף קום בתולת ישראל במערבא מתרצי לה הכי נפלה ולא תוסיף לנפול עוד קום בתולת ישראל אמר רב נחמן בר יצחק אפילו הכי חזר דוד וסמכן ברוח הקדש שנא' (תהלים קמה, יד) סומך ה' לכל הנופלים:

Iranian warships Live Blogging

Times are Jerusalem/Cairo time (GMT+2)

For further updates see latest post: Iranian Ships Enter Suez Canal (Live Updates)

Tuesday 05:45 According to BBC, canal officials have reported that two Iranian warships have entered the Suez Canal to make a passage to the Mediterranean Sea.They entered the canal at 5:45am Jerusalem/Cairo time (0345 GMT).

Monday 18:30 According to Bloomberg, the head of traffic at the Suez Canal Authority has reported that the authority has not yet received a schedule for the passage of two Iranian warships through the waterway. According to Bloomber, the Suez Canal accounts for 2.5% of world oil output and is a key route for Euroasian trade.

Monday 16:00 Suez Canal officials say two Iranian naval vessels are expected to start their passage through the strategic waterway early Tuesday. (AP)

Sunday 21:30 According to INN, a Suez Canal source said Sunday evening that  the passage of two Iranian warships to the Mediterranean Sea has been postponed 48 hours (i.e. until Tuesday night).

15:00 According to DEBKA File, Cairo and Tehran are colluding to slip the Iranian warships through the Suez Canal and create confusion around the ships' permissions, location and status to deflect international criticism. The Iranian cruiser Kharg is carrying long-term missiles for Hezbollah which it plans to unload at Beriut or further north. As reported by Debka earlier, US State Department spokesman P.J Crowley said he was "highly skeptical" of the Syrian claim that the two ships' visit was for training. "If the ships move through the canal, we will evaluate what they actually do. It's not really about the ships. It's about what the ships are carrying, what's their destination, what's the cargo on board, where's it going, to whom and for what benefit." According to UN sanctions, the US and all US members are authorized to board and search Iranian ships suspected of carrying illegal weapons. According to Debka, Iran has openly expressed its plants to expand its naval and military presence beyond the Persian Gulf and Red Sea to the Mediterranean via Suez: On February 2, Iran's Deputy Navy Commander Rear Admiral Gholam-Reza Khadem Biqam announced the flotilla's mission was to "enter the waters of the Red Sea and then be dispatched to the Mediterranean Sea."

12:50 Suez canal officials have denied reports that the Iranian ships have sailed through the waterway. (Sky News)

12:10 Iran's state broadcaster Al-Alam says vessels have reached Mediterranean and are headed to a Syrian port. (Haaretz)

11:11 Debka File says ships were delayed on fake pretexts to generate confusion over their movements.

11:00 Netanyahu in weekly cabinet meeting: Israel views with utmost gravity the intent of Iran to send warships to the Mediterranean through the Suez Canal. Called the maneuver "an Iranian attempt to expand its influence in the region." (Jpost)

9:30: Iran claims two if its warships have already passed through the Suez Canal. The claim has yet to be confirmed by independent sources. (INN)

9:00: A Suez Canal official said that the Iranian ships will arrive at the southern part of the canal later Sunday and will enter the Mediterranean on Monday morning. (JPost)

0:20 Sunday: A Suez official has reported that the two Iranian ships will sail from the Red Sea through the Suez Canal to the Mediterranean on Monday. (Reuters)

21:20 Thursday: According to YNet, Egypt's Foreign Ministry has confirmed that two Iranian naval vessels have submitted a request to transit the Suez Canal. According to the Jerusalem Post, a Suez Canal official said the Defense Ministry would process the application (read: the Defense Ministry has to figure out who it currently is, whether it is more hostile to Iran or to Israel, and whether it wants a major confrontation with the World of the Free). 

18:00 Thursday: According to INN, Iranian state television reported Thursday that the two Iranian warships are still heading for the Suez Canal. Senior Iranian official: "We are in contact with out colleagues in Cairo to insure the passage of the vessels. The Egyptian authorities said there is no bar to the passing of the ships."

15:00 Thursday: According to a senior canal official, the Iranian vessels have withdrew a request Thursday to pass through the Suez Canal after Israel expressed concerns over the plans. The ships are currently near the Saudi Red Sea port of Jiddah. Were the ships just a way for Iran to distract the world's attention from reports of the regime's violent suppression of democracy protests, using its favorite scapegoat, Israel?

22:00 Wednesday: The director of transit at the Suez Canal Authority said that the passage of any warship through the canal requires approval from the Egyptian ministry of Defense (um, does that currently exist??) and from Egyptian security officials (ditto) 48 hours in advance, and that no such request has been received nor granted, according to Al Jazeera.

19:00 Wednesday: Today Israeli FM Lieberman called the Iranian act a "provocation" and called for the international community to understand that "Israel will not be able to ignore these provocations forever." These comments were interpreted by many as an Israeli hint that it would retaliate, and right after Lieberman's comments went public, fears of more mideast tumult spiked oil prices worldwide. Brent crude hit a 29-month high after rising to $104.52 around noon EST. 

Iranian warships headed tonight to Suez Canal (latest updates)

Iranian warships are headed for the Suez Canal and are expected to cross it late Wednesday night (Israel time). No Iranian vessel has passed through Suez since the Islamic Republic was established in 1979. Under Mubarak, Egypt did not allow Iranian ships through Suez. Now that Mubarak is gone, there isn't exactly anyone with the reins in Egypt who is concerned for Israel's security enough to tell Iran what to do. The free passage of Iranian ships through Suez would signify a major shift in Middle Eastern geopolitics and the first clear evidence that the new Egypt is dangerous for Israel, the region and the world.

UPDATE (9:30 Sunday Israel time): Iran claims two if its warships have already passed through the Suez Canal. The claim has yet to be confirmed by independent sources. (INN)

UPDATE (9:00 Sunday Israel time): A Suez Canal official said that the Iranian ships will arrive at the southern part of the canal later Sunday and will enter the Mediterranean on Monday morning. (JPost)

UPDATE (0:20 Sunday Israel time): A Suez official has reported that the two Iranian ships will sail from the Red Sea through the Suez Canal to the Mediterranean on Monday. (Reuters)

UPDATE (21:20 Thursday Israel time): According to YNet, Egypt's Foreign Ministry has confirmed that two Iranian naval vessels have submitted a request to transit the Suez Canal. According to the Jerusalem Post, a Suez Canal official said the Defense Ministry would process the application (read: the Defense Ministry has to figure out who it currently is, whether it is more hostile to Iran or to Israel, and whether it wants a major confrontation with the World of the Free). 

UPDATE (18:00 Thursday Israel time): According to INN, Iranian state television reported Thursday that the two Iranian warships are still heading for the Suez Canal. Senior Iranian official: "We are in contact with out colleagues in Cairo to insure the passage of the vessels. The Egyptian authorities said there is no bar to the passing of the ships."

UPDATE (15:00 Thursday Israel time): According to a senior canal official, the Iranian vessels have withdrew a request Thursday to pass through the Suez Canal after Israel expressed concerns over the plans. The ships are currently near the Saudi Red Sea port of Jiddah. Were the ships just a way for Iran to distract the world's attention from reports of the regime's violent suppression of democracy protests, using its favorite scapegoat, Israel?

UPDATE (22:00 Wednesday Israel time): The director of transit at the Suez Canal Authority said that the passage of any warship through the canal requires approval from the Egyptian ministry of Defense (um, does that currently exist??) and from Egyptian security officials (ditto) 48 hours in advance, and that no such request has been received nor granted, according to Al Jazeera.

More importantly, according to the Arab news network, the Suez canal official said that under current international treaties, Egypt cannot prevent passage to vessels of any country unless it is in a state of war with that country. In other words, Egypt cannot do a thing to Iran's vessels without itself provoking war.

Iran claims the ships are headed to Syria. On the way to Syria, there are 3 critical stops:

1) Crossing from the Arabian Sea to the Red Sea (Yam Suf in Israel and in the Bible, this was the sea that split for the Jewish people and drowned the Egyptians). The Red Sea runs between Saudi Arabia and Egypt, and its northern side borders Sinai.

2) Entering the Suez Canal, which connects the Red Sea to the Mediterranean Sea. Almost all Israeli wars have involved some struggle around Suez. It's worth googling Suez Canal on a map just to see how narrow the canal really is.

3) Entering the Mediterranean Sea, which leads to Syria. All of Israel's coastline borders the Mediterranean sea.

It is very unlikely that Israel will let Iranian ships sail in the Mediterranean, as Lieberman hinted today. However, according to Israel's treaty with Egypt, it cannot currently attack a ship in the Suez canal without breaching the treaty, since the canal borders Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Which means Israel will probably wait to attack the ships as soon as they enter the Mediterranean. Yet the sooner Israel attacks the ships, the closer they are to Egypt, where the reaction to an Israeli strike in its waters may not be a welcome act for the new regime.

Today Israeli FM Lieberman called the Iranian act a "provocation" and called for the international community to understand that "Israel will not be able to ignore these provocations forever." These comments were interpreted by many as an Israeli hint that it would retaliate, and right after Lieberman's comments went public, fears of more mideast tumult spiked oil prices worldwide. Brent crude hit a 29-month high after rising to $104.52 around noon EST.

Meanwhile, in the U.S., the Obama administration is trying to figure where the Suez Canal is and what it has to do with getting to Syria. Energy secretary Steve Chu said today: "I think we have concern. We certainly want stability in the Middle East." Read more on Atlas Shrugs on how Israel cannot save the world alone.