Hezbollah moving missiles to Lebanon

Fearing the fall of Assad's regime and the establishment of a pro-West, anti-Hezbollah government in its place, Hezbollah is reported to be moving its missiles from Syria to Eastern Lebanon. According to a report published in the French newspaper Le Figaro over the weekend, intelligence agencies have monitored movement of trucks from Syria to Lebanon containing long-range Iranian Zilzal, Fajr 3 and Fajr 4 missiles. The report also cites that Hezbollah is concerned Israel will bomb the convoys in transit from Syria to Lebanon.

On Friday, the European Union expanded sanctions against Syria's political and military leaders. Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Muallem related that Syria considers the sanctions "act of war". A declaration adopted at the EU summit in Brussels condemned the violence, assuring that "those responsible for crimes and violence against civilians shall be held accountable." European Union representatives also called for the UN Security Council to adopt a resolution condemning the crackdown.

Meanwhile, Syrian troops stormed villages near the Syria-Turkey border towards the end of last week, raising the influx of Syrian refugees to Turkey to a total of 12,000. US Secratary of State Hillary Clinton warned that Syrian troop build-up raises the likelihood of a border clash between Syria and Turkey. The EU similarly called for maximum restraint after Syrian military activity near the Turkish border. Diplomats in Ankara and Beirut perceived Syrian activity near the border as a veiled threat against Turkey, who has been vocal in calling for reforms. And Syria is showing no signs of reigning in; on Saturday evening the Syrian military stormed yet another village near the Turkish border. 

Walter Russel Mead at Via Meadia makes the case that Syria fulfills all the invasion criteria of Libya, and some. Assad's crackdown on protests amounts to a grave humanitarian crisis, and the fall of his regime plays into American national interest. Regime change in Syria would be a blow to the Shi'a-aligned crescent from Iran to Lebanon. In the words of Walter Mead, "Both in substance and in the way it was handled the Libyan intervention makes a Syrian intervention both harder to pull off and harder to avoid."

Four women shot dead at all-women demonstration in Syria

On Sunday, Syrian security forces tanks intensified suppression of anti-Assad demonstrations, including at one all-female protest, in which four women were shot dead.

A senior Western diplomat quoted in the guardian said Iran is advising Assad on how to crush dissent, citing an increase in the number of Iranian personnel present in Syria since protests began. Tactics similar to those used by Iran include door-to-door raids, which have increased in past weeks, and blocking mobile and communications and internet service. According to the diplomat's assessment, Iran is concerned about losing its most important ally in the Arab world, and its conduit for supplying weapons to Hezbollah. Syria's population is 75% Sunni, while the ruling Assad family hails from the Shia minority. Iran's regime is the bastion of Shia Islam in the Arab world.

Over 800 people have been killed since demonstrations began in mid-March.

So far, the US and European Union have enacted sanctions on Syrian leaders but have refrained from calling for Assad to step down. Foreign media have been banned from the country.

Nasrallah flees South Lebanon residence

The Kuwaiti daily El-Siyassa reports that Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah has changed his personal security arrangement and location in Southern Lebanon to avoid a potential US assassination, in the wake of the bin Laden raid in Pakistan on Sunday. According to the paper, Western intelligence officials have considered taking out Nasrallah to weaken global terrorist infrastructure and Iranian influence in the region. The elimination of Nasrallah would mean the end of Hezbollah, sources say.

 הנה אויביך ה' הנה אויביך יאבדו יתפרדו על פעלי און

Behold, Your enemies, o God, Your enemies shall perish, all evildoers shall be scattered 

--Psalm 92

Syria kills 6, including doctor, in attack on protest mosque

Syrian forces have killed six people in an attack on a mosque full of anti-Assad protestors in the southern city of Dara on late Tuesday, Gulf News reports. Among the dead is a doctor from a well-known family who was in the mosque to help victims of the attack. Ten people have now been killed after a week of demonstrations. Like Egypt, Syria has had emergency law in place since 1963, banning any opposition and entrenching a nationalized economy.

According to Haaretz, the IDF is preparing for the possibility that instability in Assad's regime will lead to an attack on Israel (h"v):

The Israel Defense Forces is readying for the possibility that Syria might create a provocation along the northern border to divert attention from the growing protests against President Bashar Assad's regime. Nevertheless, the defense establishment views this as unlikely.

...The IDF is also preparing for the possibility that Damascus might use Hezbollah or other militant organizations in Lebanon to heat up that front to divert attention from events in Syria. But one senior officer said that Assad and his people appear to be too busy suppressing the domestic unrest to have time for that. So for now, most preparations are at the intelligence level, and there is currently no plan to beef up IDF forces along the border.

Now that the US has attacked Libya, protesters around the world are all the more emboldened. I wonder if the US will make a stop in Yemen or Syria while they're out here?

On Israel radio today, an expert said the street in Syria is not as hostile to Israel as the regime. On the one hand, ousting Assad could open the door for a more moderate regime. On the other hand, Hezbollah in Lebanon could easily take advantage of the chaos and expand their sphere of influence.

Meanwhile, some MK's also voiced support today for an Operation Cast Lead 2.

Democratic protests?

From a recent Pew poll in Egypt:

30% favorable towards Hezbollah
49% favorable towards Hamas
20% favorable towards al Qaeda

82% support stoning for those who commit adultery
77% support whippings and hands cut off for robbery
84% support the death penalty for a Muslim who changes his religion

In response to the question: Do you support “modernizers” or “Islamists­”?

27% support modernizer­s
59% support Islamists

Democratic protests, or the Muslim Brotherhoo­d wearing its liberal mask for the enamored western media?

Stats from http://bit­.ly/dJKe7b