Suspected terror attack in Turkey

A bomb went off in downtown Ankara on Wednesday morning, injuring at least 27 people. Turkish officials reported that the blast occurred in a minibus. Deputy Prime Minister Bulent Arinc told Turkish television that the blast was caused by a bomb that was planted in a vehicle.

What's going on with Greece?

Today 20,000 protested in Greek's second-largest city, Thessaloniki, in anticipating of the government's announcement of additional austerity measures to avoid a default on the country's debt. Markets plunged on Friday at the prospect of a Greek default, a move that would deal a sharp blow to the European banking sector as a whole.

On a positive note, last week Greece's foreign minister Panos Beglitis was in Jerusalem to sign a security cooperation agreement with Israel, on the background of deteriorating relations between Israel and Greece's neighbor, Turkey. Greece also voiced its support of Cyprus' freedom to conduct business with Israel in the Mediterranean last week, in response to Turkish threats on the island country.

Perhaps also related to strengthening ties between Athens and Jerusalem, a new law passed in Greece last week grants citizenship to Greek Jewish refugees from World War II.

Are Turkey and Egypt aligning against Israel?

Turkey, Egypt, the Mediterranean and Israel

Israeli leaders may be simply hoping Turkey backs down, but Israel's military is reportedly taking seriously Ankara's recent threat to send warships to accompany boats to Gaza.

According to the World Tribune, Israeli military sources are preparing for the worst: potential confrontation at sea with Turkey, with Gaza at the focal point. The concern is that Turkey may join forces with Egypt to patrol the Mediterranean with the help of Turkey's naval bases in the region.

"They [Turkish warships] will be seen more frequently in those waters," Erdogan said on Sept. 6. "The eastern Mediterranean is not a strange place to us."

Erdogan is planning a visit Cairo to discuss "strategic cooperation" with the new Egypt, during which he may make a provocative visit to Gaza with his hosts' help. And earlier today, YNet reported that Turkey is planning on conducting military maneuvers with Egypt in the Mediterranean in coming months.

Israel's two best friends in the region -- Turkey and Egypt -- are now turning their backs from her, and to each other instead. The problem is that when Turkey and Egypt turn to each other, that pretty much covers the Mediterranean.

Let's pray Israel's leaders begin to take the new Middle East seriously!

IDF general warns of increasing likelihood of 'all-out war'

At a speech at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, Home Front Command Chief Major General Eyal Eisenberg made rare warnings that the Middle East is headed for a major war:

Iran has not abandoned its nuclear program. The opposite it true; it continues full steam ahead...

In Egypt, the army is collapsing under the burden of regular security operations, and this is reflected in the loss of control in the Sinai and the turning of the border with Israel into a terror border, with the possibility that Sinai will fall under the control of an Islamic entity...

In Lebanon, Hezbollah is growing stronger within government arms, but it has not lost its desire to harm Israel, and the ties with Turkey aren't at their best.

...This raises the likelihood of an all-out, total war, with the possibility of weapons of mass destruction being used.

Although his comments were approved for the press, Eisenberg was reportedly criticized by defense officials for sharing sensitive security information and "heating up tensions" in the region.

UK tells Brits to leave Syria

On Saturday the British Foreign office told its citizens residing in Syria to leave via commercial flights immediately, as evacuation options would be limited going forward.

On Friday, sixteen people were shot dead by security forces as tens of thousands of Syrians protested around the country against Assad's regime. 

Meanwhile, Turkey has dispatched an envoy to Syria with a letter calling for Assad's brother Maher to step down from his position in the army. Maher Assad's Fourth Division and Presidential Guards have been used to suppress anti-Assad demonstrations in which over 1,000 people have been killed since protests began in March.

Last week, Iran warned that it will attack Turkey if it intervenes (militarily) in Syria and US warships were deployed opposite the Syria on Monday.

Meanwhile, Israel will be conducting the wide-ranging 'Turning Point 5' home front war drill from Sunday to Thursday this week. On Wednesday there will be two siren drills, at 11:00 and 19:00. Effi Mishov, head of the Home Front Command's population department, said about the drill (transl.): "Citizens of Israel need not be worried, but they must be prepared, and Israel has the capacity to stand up to any threat that may be brought upon us."

Iran will attack Turkey if they intervene in Syria

In recent weeks a number of military and diplomatic developments around the Mediterranean suggest a key role for Turkey in combating Assad's violent crackdown on protests, and the subsequent Iranian-Syrian backlash in its wake. Below is a summary of the latest developments in tensions between Iran/Syria camp and Turkey/NATO/US:

Adapated from the About Crazy World Blog: 

1. Iranian/Hezbollah media says they will attack Turkey if they intervene in Syria 

2. Since Turkey is a member of NATO, if Turkey is attacked, NATO is required to respond. This could explain the recent US fleet movement in the Mediterranean.

3. Syrian tanks have pushed toward more towns near the Turkish border. On Friday of last week, after the Syrian army entered the town of Jisr al-Shughour close to the Turkey border,  al-Jazeera quoted the Turkish President Abdullah Gul as saying Turkey is "ready for all scenarios including military ones" to handle the Syrian crisis.

4. Meanwhile, Turkish Foreign Ministry has called a special meeting of Arab and Western ambassadors to discuss the situation in Syria.

5. The Arab League issued the first condemnation of Syria violence

6. According to Debka File, On Monday, June 13, the US deployed the USS Bataan amphibian air carrier strike vessel opposite Syria’s Mediterranean coast with 2,000 marines, 6 war planes, 15 attack helicopters, including new V-22 Ospreys, and 27 choppers for landing forces aboard. Also this week, US naval units went operational in the Aegean, Adriatic and Black Seas as part of the joint US-Ukrainian Sea Breeze 2011 exercise. The USS Monterrey cruiser armed with Aegis surface missile interceptors has additionally been stationed in the Black Sea. Western sources additonally report a build-up of ship-borne anti-missile missile strength in the Mediterranean basin. 

7. Turkish Prime Minister Tayyep Erdogan is averse to be seen working hand in glove militarily with any US interference in Syria. At the same time, Western intelligence sources in the Persian Gulf are sure Washington is coordinating its military movements with Ankara and that Erdogan quietly agreed to place Turkish bases at US disposal for an operation in Syria.

8. On Tuesday, Iran capped these events with three separate warnings to the Obama administration against military interference in Syria. Foreign Ministry Spokesman Ramin Mehman-Parast said Tuesday: “The Americans are not allowed to launch a military intervention in any country of the region including Syria.” Iran’s ground forces commander Brig. Gen. Kioumars Heidari added this threat: Any new military move by the US in the region will impose heavy costs on the country far greater than the costs it paid in Iraq and Afghanistan.”

See here for the latest on Turkish-Syrian relations

Turkey and the Egyptian Revolt

Turkey is anticipating a greater role in the Middle East after the fall of Mubarak, eager for another Islamist-friendly regime that can stand up to the West and in need of new friends. According to the Wall Street Journal:

Addressing lawmakers in Ankara as hundreds of thousands of Egyptian oppositon activists gathered in Cairo’s Freedom Square, Mr. Erdogan called on Mr. Mubarak to heed the demands of his people and instigate change.

“For the sake of Egypt Mr. Mubarak must take the first step. He must do something to instigate change,” Mr. Erdogan said, in a speech to Parliament, which was met with frequent outbreaks of applause from lawkmakers here.

Turkey potentially has much to gain from regime change in Egypt -– but Mr. Erdogan was careful not to be seen wielding a knife, stopping short of calling for Mr. Mubarak to step down...

The antiregime protests in Tunisia, Egypt and Yemen have drawn attention to Turkey’s relative success at wedding democratic freedoms with religion. It could emerge as the alternative model for countries that might soon have to choose between a democratic or Islamic administration.

This would deepen Turkey’s growing sway in the Middle East. The process began with the election of the Islamist-leaning AK party, led by Mr. Erdogan, in 2003, and accelerated as the party won a second election. It is poised to win a third this summer.

Ironically, Turkey's stance of standing with the Egyptian people, for democracy and against Mubarak but without asking him to step down, is a mirror image of Obama's. Do I smell collusion?

According to Professor David Passig, author of the Israeli bestseller '2048', between 2010-2020 the U.S. will begin to invest in Turkey, mostly in secret, in the interest of Turkey containing Russia in the Southeast Europe and Islamism in Iraq and Iran. Yet as Turkey gains power, it will split from the U.S. and become self-sufficient as a regional power and as a support for Arab states in the region.

Erdogan's cautious support of Egypt reflects its current subjugation to U.S. rhetoric on the one hand, and its anticipation of becoming a regional player as regimes turn away from U.S. and towards Islamism. While the WSJ sees Turkey as an 'alternative' between democracy and Islamism, there are undercurrents of Turkey siding with Islamism, in the garb of democracy.

In mid-January, Erdogan told the pan-Arab Al-Jazeera satellite television network that Hamas is not a terrorist movement. “We stand by Hamas when they are right, because the Hamas movement is a resistance movement. I do not see Hamas as 'terrorist.' They are people who defend the land, and it is a political group that entered the elections and won the elections.”

As Passig also points out, Turkey's anti-Israel rhetoric is a tool for it to gain further standing among populations of the Arab world, as exhibited through its new anti-Israel movie on the Maramara debacle.

David Makovsky from the Washington Institute also forsees an Islamist-Israeli confrontation as one of his two scenarios for the post-Mubarak Israeli-Palestinian conflict.