Divine Providence and the Iranian Nuclear Program: A Roundup

Mushroom cloud from the atomic bomb at Nagasaki

In Aristotelian philosophy, God is the unmoved mover, whose act of constant self-contemplation is the object desire of the entire universe and thereby the purpose of its existence and motion. Despite the fact that the deity's self-contemplation is continuous and all-encompassing, it is thought to be a paradox that God could have particular knowledge of this world, since that would so to speak 'lower' Him from His lofty level.

In Jewish sources, this paradox is embraced, and God is conceived of as both lofty, transcendent, complete and perfect, and at the same time, possessing full and complete knowledge of the world to the greatest detail. God's knowledge of this world can be compared to a person's effortless awareness of the limbs of his own body. (Yet as opposed to a person, who knows only the feeling of his limbs, a more appropriate yet still incomplete metaphor would be an imaginary all-knowing scientist, who knew every microscopic detail of all the processes transpiring in his physical being).

In any event, Judaism posits that there is no contradiction between a perfect, transcendent God and His complete knowledge of this world. What's more, God's knowledge of this world is inseparable from His overseeing of this world. If we were to extend the metaphor, this would be a mega-scientist, who is not only all-knowing of his internal processes, but also has the supernatural ability to control these processes--more precisely, whose very awareness of these processes is also the means by which they come into being. In other words, God's contemplation of the world is at the same time God's direction of the world, such that there is not a blade of grass over which there is not an angel telling it: grow, grow! 

If God's intimate knowledge applies to nature, all the more so for the human being, the pinnacle of nature, created in the divine image. And if God's providence extends over all of humanity, all the more so for the Jewish people, the apple of God's eye, and for Israel, the political entity whose growth is both the manifestation and the springboard for the ultimate redemption of the Jewish people and the world. The Land of Israel - the land over which God's eyes rest, from the beginning of the year to the end of the year.

The Hebrew word for Divine Providence, hashgacha, derives from a Hebrew root related to no other words of the language. The verb form of the word, hishgiach--to watch over--appears as a description of the Beloved of the Song of Songs (2:9):

My beloved is like a gazelle or a young hart; behold, he stands behind our wall, he looks in (=mashgiach) through the windows, he peers through the lattice=

According to some interpretive traditions, God is compared to a gazelle because a gazelle runs off with its head turned backwards, its gaze locked on the point from where it escaped. In this sense, the verses about the gazelle in the Song of Songs correspond to the Jewish people's cry to God: If you are to run off (as it appears that the Divine Presence departed after the destruction of the Second Temple), then please, we beg you to do so as a gazelle, and continue to gaze back at us, despite the distance between us. In this sense, God's gazing, or the Divine Providence discernible in an individual's life and in a nation's history, is the reshimu - the impression left of the Divine Presence in the world, after its contraction and despite its hiding. The task that remains for us is to discern God's involvement in our lives on both a personal, national and global level--and if the destruction of the Temple meant the disappearance of such clarity, then the reconstruction of such clarity is the reconstruction of the Temple. A person who has knowledge - it is if the Temple has been rebuilt in his days.


March 12, 2011: Japan's nuclear program received a massive blow when a tsunami hit its Fukushima nuclear power plant and led to an international nuclear crisis on par with Chernobyl. One less-known facet of Japan's nuclear energy program is the country's ties with Iran: Several weeks before the Fukushima accident, Japan's deputy minister for foreign affairs, Bessho Koro, visited Tehran to meet with Iranian Foreign minister Ali Akbar Salehi and carry the message of a pro-Iran Japan. Moreover, one month prior to the Fukushima meltdown, a Washington source anonymously disclosed that Japan and Iran had recently agreed that 70% of Iran's low enriched uranium would be moved to Japan and delivered back to Iran in the form of nuclear fuel rods, intended for "medical use". 

May 9, 2011: Iran's first-ever nuclear power plant in Bushehr begins fuel consumption, and is slated to begin to generate electricity in two months' time. Less than a day after the plant became active, a 4.8 earthquake hit the city of Reig in the Bushehr province, not far from the plant. The earthquake occurred not long after Japan's tsunami led to an international nuclear crisis at the Fukushima plant. Days before Bushehr was activated, the French ambassador to the IAEA expressed concern regarding the Bushehr plant. A week earlier, after a cooling plant at Bushehr shattered, an expert on Iranian nuclear issues for the Carnegie Endowment emphasized the international community's concerns on Russia's decision to move forward on Bushehr.

June 23, 2011: Russian news sources reported that five Russian scientists who assisted in the design of the Bushehr plant were among the victims of Monday's plane crash near Petrozavodsk in northern Russia. According to YNet, the five nuclear experts were the individuals responsible for ensuring the plant would withstand natural disasters. (The Bushehr nuclear power plant is located at the junction of three tectonic plates along the Persian Gulf). Russian news sources reported the deaths were "a great blow to the Russian nuclear industry." 

Yet despite the connection between the Iranian nuclear program and the crash, Russian investigators are not pointing fingers. Investigators have thus attributed the crash to human error and technical malfunction. According to a Russian source: "Although Iranian nuclear scientists have in the past been involved in unexplained accidents and plane crashes, there is no official suspicion of foul play."

Because sometimes, Hashem is the best Mossad operative.

Iran turns on Bushehr, quake hits

On Sunday, Iran's first-ever nuclear power plant near the gulfside city of Bushehr began fuel consumption for the first time since construction began in 1975. The Bushehr plant was started in 1975 by German contractors, but construction was brought to a halt after Iran's Islamic Revolution in 1979. In 1995, the Russia began to oversee resumed construction of the plant.

The Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant is located at the junction of three tectonic plates along the Persian Gulf, 11 miles outheast of the city of Bushehr. On Monday morning, 02:47 local time, less than a day after the plant became active, a 4.8 earthquake hit the city of Reig in the Bushehr province. See map below for just how close the earthquake (A) was to the power plant (B):


View Larger Map


Iran boasts that the plant is quake-proof and will not experience a situation similar to that of the Daichi plant in Fukushima, Japan. Yet only three days ago, before the plant began to operate, the French ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency, Florence Mangin, expressed concern regarding the Bushehr plant in the context of global nuclear security. According to Mangin, Iran is unwilling to adhere to key conventions regarding nuclear activities.

On Sunday, a cooling pump shattered at the Bushehr plant, forcing a shutdown during its initial start-up phase. According to Mark Hibbs, an expert on Iranian nuclear issues at the Carnegie Endowment for World Peace, the pump failure “raises questions about the decisions the Russians made to move forward with emergency coolant system that’s 30 years old."

According to Bloomberg, experts' safety concerns hinge on the plant's hybrid design, Iran's reluctance to join international safety monitoring programs, and the unknown reliability of some of the original components. According to Bill Horak, chariman of the nuclear cience and technology department at Brookhaven National Library in New York, Russians used old parts supplied by the Germans in the 1970's in order to cut costs on the plant's construction.

Countries concerned in particular about the plant's safety include Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, who would be affected within hours of a potential radiation leak at Bushehr, according to the Kuwait Center for Strategic studies. Long-term contamination in the Gulf could prove fatal, as gulf states rely on desalinated freshwater for their water needs. In the present situation, surrounding countries are forced to count on shaky Iranian promises and Russian certification.

According to Moscow Defense Brief, the US viewed Russia's involvement in Bushehr as indirect support for the Iranian nuclear arms program, and until 2005 Washington exerted significant pressure on Russia to stop the project and urged other countries to ban their companies from taking part. Yet in 2005, after Moscow and Tehran signed a deal under which spent fuel would be returned to Russia, the US lifted its opposition. Under the arrangement, Russia provides the nuclear fuel from the plant and Russian experts will run the plant for several years.

An official launch ceremony for the plant was held in August of last year. After the launch ceremony, the former head of Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence--the organization now "interrogating" bin Laden's widows--celebrated the launch, declaring: "Iran's nuclear gains benefit Muslims".

In the week leading up to the launch ceremony, US Ambassador to the UN John Bolton warned that Israel only has days to strike the plant, as an attack on the plant after fuel has been delivered would trigger widespread radiation.

Israel denies reports of fighter jets preparing for Iran attack

IR40 Heavy Water reactor facility, near Arak, Iran

According to Press TV, Iranian state television's website, Israeli fighter jets were seen in Iraq preparing for an attack on Iran:

A considerable number of Israeli warplanes were seen at al-Asad base in Iraq, reported a source close to prominent Iraqi cleric Muqtada al-Sader's group. The aircraft reportedly included F-15, F-16, F-18, F-22, and KC-10 jet fighters. The warplanes carried out their week-long exercises at nights, the same source added.

The drills were reportedly aimed at preparing to strike Iran's air defense systems, disrupt Iran's radars and attack targets deep inside Iran.

Iraqi officials had not been notified of the exercises, which were conducted in collaboration with the US military. The United States maintains numerous bases in Iraq, and the Baghdad government is not involved in any of the military deployments taking place there. 

However, according to Haaretz, both Israel and Iran deny the reports:

Israel said it had no knowledge of such a strike plan and Iraq's air force commander denied the Iranian report...An Israeli army spokeswoman said she had no knowledge of any such report and said the military did not comment on operational matters.

Iraqi air force commander Staff Lieutenant General Anwar Ahmed rejected the report as "groundless". "The al-Asad base (mentioned by Press TV) exists on Iraqi territory. We can never accept launching any military attack against any of the neighboring countries, whether Iran or any other country, from Iraqi lands," he told Reuters. 

If we do get around to bombing Iran, can we please call it Operation Arak?

World's largest cargo plane to fly world's largest concrete pump to Japan

It's official: Japan has finally admitted defeat in the battle to contain radiation at four Fukushima reactors. Officials have indicated they are abandoning all efforts to keep the nuclear fuel rods cool.

So, what's next? Entombing Fukushima in tons of concrete. The Augusta Chronicle reports:

The world’s largest concrete pump, deployed at the construction site of the U.S. government’s $4.86 billion mixed oxide fuel plant at Savannah River Site, is being moved to Japan in a series of emergency measures to help stabilize the Fukushima reactors.

“The bottom line is, the Japanese need this particular unit worse than we do, so we’re giving it up,” said Jerry Ashmore, whose company, Augusta-based Ashmore Concrete Contractors, Inc., is the concrete supplier for the MOX facility.

• Photos

The 190,000-pound pump, made by Germany-based Putzmeister has a 70-meter boom and can be controlled remotely, making it suitable for use in the unpredictable and highly radioactive environment of the doomed nuclear reactors in Japan, he said.

“There are only three of these pumps in the world, of which two are suited for this work, so we have to get it there as soon as we can,” Ashmore said in an interview with The Chronicle today. “Time is very much a factor.”

The pump was moved Wednesday from the construction site in Aiken County to a facility in Hanahan, S.C., for minor modifications, and will be trucked to Atlanta’s Hartsfield Airport, where it will be picked up by the world’s largest cargo plane, the Russian-made Antonov 225, which will fly it to Tokyo.

Bloomberg explains the logic of dumping concrete on a dysfunctional radioactive plant:

Dismantling the plant and decontaminating the site may take 30 years and cost Tokyo Electric more than 1 trillion yen ($12 billion), engineers and analysts said. The government hasn’t ruled out pouring concrete over the whole facility as one way to shut it down, Edano said. Tokyo is 135 miles (220 kilometers) south of the Dai-Ichi power plant.

Dumping concrete on the plant would serve a second purpose: it would trap contaminated water, said Tony Roulstone, an atomic engineer who directs the University of Cambridge’s masters program in nuclear energy. “They need to immobilize this water and they need something to soak it up,” he said. “You don’t want to create another hazard, but you need to get it away from the reactors.”

The process will take longer than the 12 years needed to decommission the Three Mile Island reactor in Pennsylvania following a partial meltdown in 1979, said Hironobu Unesaki, a nuclear engineering professor at Kyoto University.

Meanwhile, Energy News is reporting that Radioactive Iodine-131 in rainwater sample near San Francisco was 18,100% above federal drinking water standard. 

However, not everyone is trying to steer clear of Fukushima. Today, a man was arrested after breaking through the gate of the plant and driving his car around the highly radioactive site for nearly ten minutes. The incident raises a grave question: Who is now guarding the nuclear cores?

Harmful levels of radiation detected outside 30km evac zone

NHK World reports:

Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano says computer forecasts show that radiation leaking from a nuclear plant could pose a hazard to people outside its 30-kilometer zone.

Edano said at a news conference on Wednesday that a computer forecast system has shown that radiation levels in some areas outside the 30-kilometer zone would exceed 100 millisieverts, which is the level that could affect the human thyroid if a person is exposed to it outdoors for 24 hours.

Edano cited a lack of data and the need for more precise calculations, and said there is no need for immediate evacuation or to seek shelter indoors.

At the same time, he urged people living downwind from the plant to stay indoors as much as possible and keep the windows shut as a precaution.

Meanwhile, the Daily Mail is reporting that 5 of the 50 workers who stayed behind to save the plant are now believed to be dead.

Japan supported Iran's nuclear program, promised fuel rods

The foreign ministers on Japan and Iran met in Tehran in late February

Today, the Fukushima reactor's spent fuel rod pool reached boiling point, raising new fears that the pool's water will evaporate and the fuel rods will become exposed, which could lead to dangerous radiation emission levels. Last week the IAEA warned that if the reactor continued to emit radiation, the health hazard to the USA may have to be reassessed.

Before Japan's nuclear crisis, the world was facing a less hyped, although potentially even more dangerous nuclear crisis -- the threat of a nuclear Iran. An unstable, whimsical, boisterous dictator was engaging in a covert nuclear weapons program, while calling freely to wipe the Jewish state off the map -- and the world barely blinked an eye.

Isn't it interesting then, to discover that the two nuclear crises are related.

Several weeks before the Fukushima accident, Japanese deputy minister for foreign affairs Bessho Koro visited Tehran to meet with Iranian Foreign minister Ali Akbar Salehi and carry the message of a pro-Iran Japan (after all, if it's profitable, why not?):

The Japanese deputy foreign minister said Japan supports Iran's nuclear energy program and added that Iran has the right to use nuclear energy for peaceful purposes. He went on to say that Tokyo is determined to develop ties with Tehran. Salehi and Koro also discussed the latest regional developments and called for the expansion of cooperation between the two countries in all spheres.

What exactly are the latest regional developments? Iran suppressing democratic protests? The threat of Iranian-funded terrorism taking hold in the new chaos facing the Middle East? Gaza firing Iranian rockets on Israel? Where exactly are the regional developments that create an environment conducive between anything resembling the 21st-century world with one of the most oppressive and unstable regimes on the planet?!

And here's what was in the works last February (via Israel Matzav):

Politico: Japan emerges as key player on Iran

Under the alleged compromise fuel swap deal that Japanese diplomats quietly briefed U.S. officials on earlier this month, some 70% of Iran’s low enriched uranium stockpile would be moved to Japan, according to what one Washington source, speaking anonymously, was told by the Japanese. Japan would then take responsibility for the stockpile, and ensure the delivery to Iran of fuel rods for nuclear medical use.

If there were any plans in the works for Japan to supply Iran with fuel rods for "medical use", the earthquake, tsunami and nuclear crisis "wiped them off the face of the earth", so to speak. In the Politico article, there's an interesting fact mentioned that creates an eerie connection between the future of Egypt and the latest nuclear crisis:

In addition, in November, a Japanese diplomat, Yukio Amano, succeeded Mohamed ElBaradei to become director general of the IAEA, in effect the top international nuclear negotiator in the world.

El Baradei, or the soft-on-Iran nuclear watchdog impostor, and the poster child for the Muslim Brotherhood's PR campaign in seizing control of the new Egypt. Hashem works in interesting ways...


Meanwhile, Bill Koenig has tracked Japan's deplorable track record of denying Israel's right to build and defend itself. Check out what the Japanese foreign ministry had to say on March 11, 2010 - exactly one year to the day prior to when the earthquake and tsunami hit:

The Government of Japan deplores the decisions of the Government of Israel to give permission for the construction of 1,600 housing units in East Jerusalem in addition to 112 units in West Bank just after the Israeli and Palestinian leadership’s acceptance of the start of indirect talks. The Government of Japan does not recognize any act that prejudges the final status of Jerusalem and the territories in the pre-1967 borders. Japan demands that the plans should not be implemented.

One message does seem to be clear from recent disasters: hey, idyllic countries far off there: stop using your God-given blessings to pick on Israel. God's kingship in today's world may be the most hidden it has ever been, but those with a pure and deep faith, a faith bequeathed to us from our ancestors, rooted deep in the the Jewish soul, cultivated throughout the ages precisely for days such as these, know without a shadow of a doubt that lo yanum v'lo yishan Shomer Yisroel -- no, the Guardian of Israel does not slumber! -- and even though galus feels like a state of slumber and abandonment, we know without a doubt that God is right here, about to save us from all our enemies, as present and as real as He was when He spoke to our people at Sinai, aware of our suffering and clearing the way for our geulah. The days are near when all the words of all the prophets regarding the Jewish people -- and the fall of their enemies -- will come true before our very eyes. May it be so speedily in our days. 

Japan's nuclear crisis far from over: Spent fuel rod reactor pool at boiling point

Anyone else frustrated by the daily assurances that the situation in Japan is under control, only to be followed by more doom? The latest emergency as reported by CTV:

In a reminder that the battle to stop the spread of radiation at the plant is still not over, officials said Tuesday that a pool holding spent nuclear fuel had heated up to around the boiling point.

Even spent fuel rods can generate intense heat and dangerous radiation. The rods need to be stored in a water-filled pool for a year or more to allow them to cool, and the heat from the pools needs to be constantly removed.

The worry at the overheating Fukushima fuel pool is that if it's not cooled down soon, radioactive steam will be emitted. And if the situation worsens, the water within could boil away, exposing the fuel rods, which would throw up much more radiation. 

Last week, the IAEA warned that if the reactor in Japan continues to emit radiation, the health hazard to the USA would have to be reexamined.

Meanwhile, AP reported that steam was seen rising from reactor No. 2, and white haze from reactor No. 3, as radiation at both units spiked briefly.

IAEA: Health hazard to USA may have to be reassessed

- Radionuclides from Fukushima nuclear reactors found in Sacramento, CA (current levels not harmful to human health)

- IAEA expert: If Japan reactor continues to emit radiation, situation "may have to be reassessed"

CNN reports:

A radiation monitor in California has detected a trace of radioactive material from the stricken nuclear power plant in Japan, the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organization said Friday.

The exact amounts were not available, but the test ban organization's executive secretary, Tibor Toth, said the measurements were below what would be considered harmful to human health.

The treaty organization's chief press officer, Annika Thunborg, said its officials were "absolutely certain" that the radiation detected in California is from Fukushima because the isotypes were consistent with those emitted by the Fukushima reactors, and the timing of their detection is consistent with projections.

...The Sacramento monitor detected minute amounts of radionuclides -- substances that emit radiation -- which had been expected, Toth said.

The EPA, in a statement, confirmed that a monitoring station in Sacramento that feeds into the treaty organization's monitoring system "detected minuscule quantities of the radioactive isotope xenon-133, a gas that is produced during nuclear fission. The origin was determined to be consistent with a release from the Fukushima reactors in northern Japan.

See video at CNN


ABS-CBN News: Fukushima cloud now at Atlantic

The plume from Fukushima has now reached the western Atlantic but its radioactivity is likely to be "extremely low" and have no impact on health or the environment, France's Institute for Radiological Protection and Nuclear Safety (IRSN) said on Saturday.

"As of yesterday, the cloud covered most of North America and northeastern Siberia. It is currently passing over the North Atlantic," it said, naming French terroritories in the Caribbean and off Canada's eastern coast.

The cloud has been progressively thinning as it heads eastwards around the northern hemisphere at high altitude and will reach mainland Europe on Wednesday or Thursday, it said, citing a computer model jointly compiled with the French weather service, Meteo France.

"The concentrations of caesium 137 in the air over land traversed by the plume are expected to be extremely low," it said.

Also see earlier post, Will radioactive materials from Japan reach the US?

Meanwhile, 200,000 US troops are being evacuated from Japan to Seattle, San Diego, San Francisco and L.A.

US experts fear dire, irreparable Fukushima reactor breach

 LA Times reports:

U.S. government nuclear experts believe a spent fuel pool at Japan's crippled Fukushima reactor complex has a breach in the wall or floor, a situation that creates a major obstacle to refilling the pool with cooling water and keeping dangerous levels of radiation from escaping.

That assessment by U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission officials is based on the sequence of events since the earthquake and information provided by key American contractors who were in the plant at the time, said government officials familiar with the evaluation. It was compelling evidence, they said, that the wall of the No. 4 reactor pool has a significant hole or crack.

Unlike the reactor itself, the spent fuel pool does not have its own containment vessel, and any radioactive particles and gases can more easily spew into the environment if the uranium fuel begins to burn. In addition, the pool, which contains 130 tons of uranium fuel, is housed in a building that Japanese authorities say appears to have been damaged by fire or explosions.

A breach in the pool would leave engineers with a problem that has no precedent or ready-made solution, said Edwin Lyman, a physicist with the Union of Concerned Scientists.

"My intuition is that this is a terrible situation and it is only going to get worse," he said. "There may not be any way to deal with it."

Japan exposing more workers to harmful radiation levels to offset nuclear disaster

Bloomberg reports a devestating situation at Fukushima:

The utility increased its workforce at the Fukushima Dai- Ichi plant to 322 yesterday from 180 on March 16 as it tried to douse water over exposed nuclear fuel rods to prevent melting and leaking lethal radiation.

...“They have an access time of 10 to 25 hours at the most,” Price, 60, said in a telephone interview yesterday. “At that rate, you are going to go through workers very fast.”

Workers are being ordered to leave the plant, located 135 miles (220 kilometers) north of Tokyo, before radiation dosages reach the maximum permissible level, said a spokesman for the utility who declined to give his name.

Radiation exposure levels are measured in millisieverts. Exposure totaling 100 millisieverts over a year is the lowest level at which any increase in cancer is evident, according to the World Nuclear Association in London. The cumulative maximum level for nuclear workers was increased to 250 millisieverts from 100 millisieverts by Japan’s health ministry on March 15.

“Once they have reached that limit, they can’t go in the plant anymore,” Price said. “You shouldn’t be doing that sort of work ever again.”

One plant worker was exposed to 106.3 millisieverts, Japan’s Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency said in a website posting yesterday.

See here for the latest on the USA health hazard

Will radioactive materials from Japan reach the US? (updates)

New: See latest post, IAEA: Health hazard to USA may have to be reassessed

Update 2: Mike Adams, the Health Ranger from Natural News, clarifies that the real danger is a full meltdown in the Japan reactors, which would release a large amount of radiation into the atmosphere, which according to UN calculations, would send a powerful nuclear cloud towards the US West Coast. This has not happened yet, but at Natural News, they are taking the approach that it is better to be prepared than to be kept in the dark by government caution. Adams tells us the role of government in this situation is to keep the public calm until there is no choice but to tell LA it has 3 days to evacuate. So, don't panic, but remember this website and these tips in case things get worse.

Update 1: US boosts radiation-sniffing system

Federal agencies are beefing up their radiation-monitoring capabilities at home and abroad, even as they insist that significant amounts of fallout won’t waft from Japan onto U.S. territory. At home, the Environmental Protection Agency said it's adding seven monitors in Alaska, Hawaii and Guam to its RadNet radiation-tracking system, which operates about 100 air-sniffing stations nationwide. Putting in those extra stations "allows us to gather data from a position closer to Japan," EPA said in an online question-and-answer guide.

The combination of the earthquake and the tsunami has botched the emergency cooling systems at the Fukushima power plant, leading to a drying-up of the spent fuel pools at units 3 and 4, raising fears of nuclear meltdown.

According to Professor Menachem Luria of Hebrew University, the situation in Japan could be more dangerous than Chernobyl in terms of the spread of radioactive materials:

This is very worrying. There is no doubt that we have not seen anything like this in years, perhaps ever since nuclear experiments were conducted in the atmosphere in the 1950s. From what we can gather, this disaster is even more dangerous than Chernobyl, both from the standpoint of the population's exposure to radioactive material and the spread of radioactive contamination in the area. Once there is an uncontrollable heating up, the nuclear fuel undergoes a metamorphosis into the gaseous phase. Since we are talking about metals and solid items, they turn into particles that are capable of traveling great distances. They can wander thousands of kilometers.

Yossi Melman of Haaretz, who quoted Professor Luria, explains:

If these gases are indeed emitted into the atmosphere in large quantities, the wind regime could carry them all the way to China, South Korea, and eastern Russia, or in the other direction, toward Hawaii and the west coast of the United States.

Melman qualifies this doomsday prospect by saying that the likelihood of this is not high. But check out this map on AccuWeather:

And these estimated time spans for the arrival of radioactive materials to the US West Coast:

Calculated time for radioactive particles to cross the Pacific from the power plants in Japan to big West Coast cities if the particles take a direct path and move at a speed of 20 mph:

Cities	Approx. Distance (miles)	Approx. Time to Cross Pacific (days)
Anchorage	3,457	7
Honolulu	3,847	8
Seattle	4,792	10
Los Angeles	5,477	11

While this article from Agence France-Presse downplays the public health threats to the US, it indicates current wind direction would blow a potential radioactive cloud across the Pacific (see also the NYT forecast):

Experts have suggested that, if there were a reactor meltdown or major leak at Fukushima, the radioactive cloud would likely be blown out east across the Pacific, towards the US West Coast. “The wind direction for the time being seems to point the (nuclear) pollution towards the Pacific,” said Andre-Claude Lacoste of the French Nuclear Safety Authority, briefing journalists in Paris on the Japanese crisis.

The question of course is how much radiation will be released in Japan, and until that is known, no one can say with 100% assurance that harmful levels will not reach the US. If Japan faces nuclear meltdown at multiple plants - a scenario which is not ruled out by the way things are going - officials will began to change their tone.

Needless to say, experts in the US and Japan have an interest in playing down the situation and keeping the public calm until the evidence is rock-hard, but the truth is that right now no one knows where the situation in Japan is heading, and as the studies suggest above, intercontinental movement of airborne particles is a phenomenon we are just beginning to understand. That's why the prediction of the Israeli scientist above and the article from the French press are particularly telling.

There's also a deeper message here: Until now, it seems as if most disasters have hit the so-called "periphery", yet the Japan earthquake-tsunami-nuclear-power-emergency disaster marks a key shift. On Sunday morning, many Californians woke up to a warning they had never heard before: Tsunami alert along the coast. Many West-Coasters were shocked that events in Japan could ripple (literally) to the serene California coastline. Sure, we always knew Hawaii and Alaska were kinda close to Japan, but for most of the US, what happens in the far East and really in all of the developed world is in the category of "really sad things that happen to such unfortunate countries".

We all know Tom Friedman's theory: global interconnectedness will eliminate poverty and war, one Facebook friend at a time. Friedman's writing is dangerous, misguided and naive, but he is right about one thing: What happens in one place affects another, whether immediately in the delivery of an email or over 11 days in the case of the spread of radiocative particles. As disasters grow in their proportions, they are less about "people out there" and more about "how this can affect you".

For Jewish readers, my best guess is that moving to Eretz Yisrael is the safest choice. But even more important, prayer and teshuva where you are, as best you can. Remember that Hashem is in charge.

Nuclear crisis worsens, Tokyo evacuations begin, 50 workers stay behind at their own risk (updates)

Radiation Levels Detected on Passengers from Japan in Taiwan and S. Korea 

About 25 passengers arriving in Taiwan from Japan were observed with levels of slightly higher exposure to radiation, a government official said on Thursday.

Authorities in South Korea had earlier reported unusually high radiation levels on three passengers arriving from Japan.

High Radiation levels detected 30 km NW of Fukushima

Japan's science ministry says radiation levels of up to 0.17 millisieverts per hour have been detected about 30 kilometers northwest of the quake-damaged Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant.

Experts say exposure to those levels for 6 hours would result in absorption of the maximum level considered safe for 1 year. 

Radiation levels at spent fuel rod pool now now fatal (from Bloomberg Q&A on Fukushima vs. Chernobyl)

Fuel rods at the plant’s No. 1 and No. 2 reactors, both of which were operating at the time of the temblor, may have been damaged, Tokyo Electric said. Pressure in the containment chamber of unit No. 2 fell yesterday, indicating that radiation may have been released after an explosion on March 15.


Radiation is also leaking from spent fuel rods stored in a pool near reactors No. 3 and No. 4. Water in the pool has evaporated due to radioactive heat, exposing the uranium- containing rods to the atmosphere. The exposed rods can emit radiation and give out radioactive iodine and cesium, both of which are cancer-causing agents.

A worker at the edge of the pool would receive a fatal radiation dose in 16 seconds, said David Lochbaum, a nuclear physicist for the Union of Concerned Scientists and a former Nuclear Regulatory Commission safety instructor.

MSNBC's Today reports that reporter Lester Holt and his crew tested positive for small amounts of radiation:

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

A Japanese man told BBC "My children are small and have their life ahead of them and I don't want them to be contaminated by the nuclear fallout."

According to CNBC, Russia's nuclear chief Sergei Kiriyenko told Russia's Putin that under the worst case scenario all six reactors could melt down. He said a team of Russian experts has been working on models to predict the worst case scenario, since information from Tokyo has been patchy.

PBS: 50 workers return to Japan nuclear plant after radiation spike

He said of the workers remaining inside the plant that "individuals have to have agreed they are going to do this and know it present tremendous risk to them. They recognize risk of developing symptoms of acute radiation syndrome and long-term risk for cancer also increases." He said acute radiation syndrome affects the gastrointestinal tract, central nervous system and blood forming organs. Pepper explained that while the workers are wearing suits, they are still not protected from certain types of potentially harmful radiation.

NYT: Last defense at troubled plant: 50 Japanese workers

Those remaining are being asked to make escalating -- and perhaps existential -- sacrifices that so far are being only implicitly acknowledged: Japan's Health Ministry said Tuesday it was raising the legal limit on the amount of radiation to which each worker could be exposed, to 250 millisieverts from 100 millisieverts, five times the maximum exposure permitted for American nuclear plant workers.

BBC: Anger over Japan nuclear exodus

• Britain advised its nationals currently in Tokyo and to the north of the capital to consider leaving the area
• France urged its nationals in Tokyo to leave the country or move south; two Air France planes were sent to begin evacuation
• Australia advised its citizens to consider leaving Tokyo and the most damaged prefectures
• Turkey warned against travel to Japan

NRC: No Water in Spent Fuel Pool of Japan Plant

The chief of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission says all the water is gone from one of the spent fuel pools at Japan's most troubled nuclear plant. This means there's nothing to stop the fuel rods from getting hotter and ultimately melting down.

The outer shell of the rods could also ignite with enough force to propel the radioactive fuel inside over a wide area. (ABC News)

Maclean's blog explains the spent fuel pool danger:

The spent fuel pools are where fuel rods are stored after they’re removed from the reactors. As with the fuel rods in the reactor, the spent fuel needs to stay submerged in cold water or it will heat up. What’s happened is that, with nearby fires and the heat given off by the spent fuel rods, the water temperature has been rising. If the water boils off, and the rods are exposed, they could meltdown. Unlike the fuel rods in the reactors though, the spent fuel rods don’t have steel and concrete enclosures. If the heat damages the rod casings, they could catch fire and spew radiation into the atmosphere. Experts are warning that the spent fuel pools may pose the biggest radiation threat at Fukushima.

MSNBC: Slow-moving nightmare unfolds at Japan plant: 

The European Union's energy chief, Guenther Oettinger, told the European Parliament that the plant was "effectively out of control" after breakdowns in the facility's cooling system.

"In the coming hours there could be further catastrophic events, which could pose a threat to the lives of people on the island," Oettinger said.

"There is as yet no panic, but Tokyo with 35 million people, is the largest metropolis in the world," he said.

Japan's Emperor Akihito addresses the nation in a rare appearance and says:

"No one knows how many people will die"

and 

"I pray for the safety of as many people as possible"

Radiation levels on the rise in Vladivostok, Russia, 800 km from Fukushima

Reuters reports:

Radiation in Vladivostok, some 800 km (500 miles) northwest of Japan's Fukushima nuclear plant, were 1 microroentgen per hour higher at 0400 GMT than six hours previously, the regional interior ministry said.

Russia's military said it was on alert to evacuate people if required from Russia's Sakhalin island and the Southern Kuril island chain which is at the heart of a territorial dispute with Japan, Interfax news agency reported.

Called the Northern Territories by Japan, they are inhabited by Russians and one of the islands, Tanfilyeva, is a mere 6 km (4 miles) from Japan's coast.

Evacuations underway after radiation levels rise at four of Japan's nuclear power plants

Experts' caution proven wrong: On Tuesday, Prime minister Naoto Kan warned risk of further releases of radioactive material remains "very high".

Fukushima #1: Radiation levels 8x the normal level detected after #2 blast

Fukushima #2: Tuesday morning blast after cooling system damaged by #3 explosion, workers evacuated, base of reactor containment vessels damaged, radiation levels have increased to "levels that can impact human health" (100-400 millisierverts = 160x average yearly dose); 20-mile radius evacuation underway; people in 20- to 30-mile radius advised to close windows and stay indoors.

Fukushima #3: Monday blast, radiation levels said to have reached 400x annual legal limit

Fukushima #4: Fire on Tuesday, releasing more radiation

CNN: Edano said earlier that he could not rule out the possibility of a meltdown at all three troubled reactors at the plant.

Kenneth Bergeron, US Energy Dept: If rods melt, "There would be warning, but we're talking massive, massive responses required."

According to STRATFOR, radiation levels in the Togichi prefecture north of Tokyo reported radiation 33x the normal level. South of Tokyo Kanagawa reported radiation 9x the normal level.

Fukushima explodes, anti-radiation iodine to be distributed, 10,000+ missing

Latest updates from the Guardian live blog:

• There has been an explosion at the Fukushima No 1 nuclear power plant in north-eastern Japan, close to the epicentre of the quake.

•Tens of thousands of people in the areas surrounding Fukushima No 1 and No 2 plants have been urged to evacuate.
 
• Japanese authorities are preparing to distribute iodine to residents in the evacuation zones to protect them against radiation exposure.

•Dozens of aftershocks, some as strong as magnitude 6, struck Japan on Saturday. Japan's state broadcaster has warned people in coastal areas that there could be further tsunamis.

•Around 1,700 people are estimated to have been killed, according to local media reports, but that death toll is expected to rise dramatically.

•Around 9,500-10,000 people are missing in the town of Minamisanrikucho in Miyagi prefecture, according to Japanese news reports.

•More than 215,000 people are in emergency shelters and around 50,000 rescuers have been deployed across the country.

•At least 1.4m homes are without water and around three million are without power.

Syria nuclear sites exposed in new report

According to YNet, the US Institute for Science and International Security has discovered 4 additional nuclear sites in Syria aside from the one Israel bombed in 2007. The ISIS report encourages the IAEA to "clearly conclude that that Syria may have egregiously violated its safeguards agreement and call for a special inspection of these four sites." The Wall Street Journal predicts the report will lead to increased pressure on Syria at the upcoming IAEA board meeting in March. Considering this new information, Syria's rejection to allow inspectors could result in Syria being declared noncompliant to UN standards and subjected to formal censuring by the UN Security Council.

How, in this situation, can the Obama/the UN/Europe/the world/Israel sit back and permit nuclear-aspiring rogue Iran to sail freely to nuclear-aspiring rogue Syria, with no inspection of cargo by any international or national entity?