IDF general warns of increasing likelihood of 'all-out war'

At a speech at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, Home Front Command Chief Major General Eyal Eisenberg made rare warnings that the Middle East is headed for a major war:

Iran has not abandoned its nuclear program. The opposite it true; it continues full steam ahead...

In Egypt, the army is collapsing under the burden of regular security operations, and this is reflected in the loss of control in the Sinai and the turning of the border with Israel into a terror border, with the possibility that Sinai will fall under the control of an Islamic entity...

In Lebanon, Hezbollah is growing stronger within government arms, but it has not lost its desire to harm Israel, and the ties with Turkey aren't at their best.

...This raises the likelihood of an all-out, total war, with the possibility of weapons of mass destruction being used.

Although his comments were approved for the press, Eisenberg was reportedly criticized by defense officials for sharing sensitive security information and "heating up tensions" in the region.

Hezbollah moving missiles to Lebanon

Fearing the fall of Assad's regime and the establishment of a pro-West, anti-Hezbollah government in its place, Hezbollah is reported to be moving its missiles from Syria to Eastern Lebanon. According to a report published in the French newspaper Le Figaro over the weekend, intelligence agencies have monitored movement of trucks from Syria to Lebanon containing long-range Iranian Zilzal, Fajr 3 and Fajr 4 missiles. The report also cites that Hezbollah is concerned Israel will bomb the convoys in transit from Syria to Lebanon.

On Friday, the European Union expanded sanctions against Syria's political and military leaders. Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Muallem related that Syria considers the sanctions "act of war". A declaration adopted at the EU summit in Brussels condemned the violence, assuring that "those responsible for crimes and violence against civilians shall be held accountable." European Union representatives also called for the UN Security Council to adopt a resolution condemning the crackdown.

Meanwhile, Syrian troops stormed villages near the Syria-Turkey border towards the end of last week, raising the influx of Syrian refugees to Turkey to a total of 12,000. US Secratary of State Hillary Clinton warned that Syrian troop build-up raises the likelihood of a border clash between Syria and Turkey. The EU similarly called for maximum restraint after Syrian military activity near the Turkish border. Diplomats in Ankara and Beirut perceived Syrian activity near the border as a veiled threat against Turkey, who has been vocal in calling for reforms. And Syria is showing no signs of reigning in; on Saturday evening the Syrian military stormed yet another village near the Turkish border. 

Walter Russel Mead at Via Meadia makes the case that Syria fulfills all the invasion criteria of Libya, and some. Assad's crackdown on protests amounts to a grave humanitarian crisis, and the fall of his regime plays into American national interest. Regime change in Syria would be a blow to the Shi'a-aligned crescent from Iran to Lebanon. In the words of Walter Mead, "Both in substance and in the way it was handled the Libyan intervention makes a Syrian intervention both harder to pull off and harder to avoid."

Syria's silent screams

'Thank you BBC'

In Syria, foreign, local and online media are virtually absent as a result of unprecedented government clampdown on protest activity. The latest source of information is from Syrian refugees who have fled to other parts of the Arab world, both for their own safety and in order to spread the message about the atrocities occurring in their homeland.

On Sunday, Syria shelled towns near the Lebanese border, and on Monday, Syrian moved tanks into rural areas near the Lebanese border, its latest focus in suppressing countrywide protests. As a result of the deteriorating security situation near the Syrian-Lebanese border, many Syrians have fled to Lebanon in recent days. According to Al Jazeera, 5,000 Syrians have fled to Lebanon since protests began.

"The situation ... is catastrophic,'' said Ahmad, 55, who crossed the border into Lebanon overnight Monday and asked to be identified only by his first name.

"If you walk in the streets of Talkalakh [Syrian border town shelled on Sunday] you can smell the dead bodies,'' he said.

Authorities justified the siege by saying the town was full of Islamic extremists who wanted to form an Islamic state, residents told the AP news agency.

One resident said the conflict in Talkalakh had taken on dangerous sectarian tones.
Hamid, 45, who also asked to be identified only by his first name, said pro-government armed men known as "shabiha'' were targeting Sunnis in the town.

Today, a mass grave was found in the main protest city of Daraa in Syria, where Syrian security forces have clamped down on residents' freedom of movement and enforced strict curfews. Nadim Houry of Human Rights Watch reports on CNN on the testimonies of those who managed to escape from Syria to Jordan:

Mohannad finally managed to escape the southern city of Daraa on May 9, two weeks after the Syrian army had surrounded the city and cut electricity, phone lines and Internet services, preventing movement into and out of the city. "The situation in Daraa is indescribable," he told us from neighboring Jordan.

With six other men, he had taken shelter in Daraa's sewers May 7 to avoid the Syrian forces, who were forcing their way into homes and detaining the town's men. He emerged 13 hours later to return home, only to find that tanks were surrounding his neighborhood.

He decided to escape. With about 50 other Daraa residents, including women and children, he walked across fields to reach the Jordanian border near Tel Shehab at midday May 9. "The Syrian security forces opened fired on us as we neared the border," he said. "I think they killed 11 people. I am not sure. I just ran for my life."

The situation in Syria is a disgrace to world powers claiming to stand by the forces of democracy and human rights in the Middle East. Yet there's a reason Syria is taking the West so long, and it's not only the embarrassing lack of media attention. The U.S. and the rest of the West know that a Libya-style attack on Syria is an indirect attack on Iran. That's not to say it won't happen -- but the West needs to have its guarantees that it is ready for such a confrontation. Stay tuned for allusions to Iran as the dark side of the Middle East in Obama's upcoming speech, and be sure that Palestinians are not the only, and not even the top issue on the Bibi-Barack table in Washington this week.

Syrians infiltrate Ramat HaGolan border

Thousands of Syrians broke through the fence along the border and infiltrated into Israel on Sunday as part of a day of declared hatred against Israel across the Arab world. Channel 2 reported four Syrians were killed after the IDF opened fire to prevent a mass invasion. According to Arab media reports, the number of Syrians killed in border clashes has risen to ten.

The IDF has reported rioting in the Druze village of Majdal Shams by infiltrators on the Israeli side of the border. The injured also received medical care in Israeli hospitals. Later Sunday the group of Syrian infiltrators are reported to have left the village returned to Syria.

IDF sources cite that Syria normally guards its border with Israel with great care, and that today's infiltration is a deliberate attempt by the Assad regime to divert attention from the suppression of protests in other parts of Syria.

Lebanon

In a separate shooting incident, five people were killed near Maroun a-Ras across the Lebanese border, where Hezbollah supporters tried to approach the border fence with Israel. Some or all of the deaths are from Lebanese army fire shot after the crowd proceeded to storm the border.

In response to the situation along the northern border, Israeli police mobilized special units to the North, and Northern police heads are meeting with IDF officials to evaluate the situation.The U.N. has called for calm along the Lebanese border.

UPDATE (18:22):  Lebanese security forces are now reporting that 10 people have been killed and over 100 have been injured in border clashes.

Israel

During the day 36 Palestinians were arrested for acts of violence around Jerusalem. On Sunday evening unrest persisted only in Kalandia, where since the morning thousands of Palestinians took to the streets and threw rocks on Israeli police in what was meant to be a peaceful protest. Israeli police responded with rubber bullets only. See here for pictures of Palestinians using an ambulance as a guise for a vehicle from which to throw rocks.

During the day, one Israeli was killed in a terror attack perpetrated by an Israeli Arab truck driver in Tel Aviv. Four Israeli police officers were wounded in incidents around Jerusalem, and thirteen police officers and soldiers were wounded along the Syrian and Lebanese borders.

All nations surrounded me; in the name of the Lord I shall cut them off

They encircled me like bees; they were extinguished like a thorn fire; 
  in the name of the Lord I shall cut them off 

They encircled me, yea they surrounded me; in the name of the Lord I shall cut them off

You pushed me to fall, but the Lord helped me 

The might and the cutting power of God was my salvation 

A voice of singing praises and salvation is in the tents of the righteous; 
  the right hand of the Lord deals valiantly. 

The right hand of the Lord is exalted; the right hand of the Lord deals valiantly. 

I shall not die but I shall live and tell the deeds of God. 

- Psalm 118
  

Nasrallah flees South Lebanon residence

The Kuwaiti daily El-Siyassa reports that Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah has changed his personal security arrangement and location in Southern Lebanon to avoid a potential US assassination, in the wake of the bin Laden raid in Pakistan on Sunday. According to the paper, Western intelligence officials have considered taking out Nasrallah to weaken global terrorist infrastructure and Iranian influence in the region. The elimination of Nasrallah would mean the end of Hezbollah, sources say.

 הנה אויביך ה' הנה אויביך יאבדו יתפרדו על פעלי און

Behold, Your enemies, o God, Your enemies shall perish, all evildoers shall be scattered 

--Psalm 92

Syria kills 6, including doctor, in attack on protest mosque

Syrian forces have killed six people in an attack on a mosque full of anti-Assad protestors in the southern city of Dara on late Tuesday, Gulf News reports. Among the dead is a doctor from a well-known family who was in the mosque to help victims of the attack. Ten people have now been killed after a week of demonstrations. Like Egypt, Syria has had emergency law in place since 1963, banning any opposition and entrenching a nationalized economy.

According to Haaretz, the IDF is preparing for the possibility that instability in Assad's regime will lead to an attack on Israel (h"v):

The Israel Defense Forces is readying for the possibility that Syria might create a provocation along the northern border to divert attention from the growing protests against President Bashar Assad's regime. Nevertheless, the defense establishment views this as unlikely.

...The IDF is also preparing for the possibility that Damascus might use Hezbollah or other militant organizations in Lebanon to heat up that front to divert attention from events in Syria. But one senior officer said that Assad and his people appear to be too busy suppressing the domestic unrest to have time for that. So for now, most preparations are at the intelligence level, and there is currently no plan to beef up IDF forces along the border.

Now that the US has attacked Libya, protesters around the world are all the more emboldened. I wonder if the US will make a stop in Yemen or Syria while they're out here?

On Israel radio today, an expert said the street in Syria is not as hostile to Israel as the regime. On the one hand, ousting Assad could open the door for a more moderate regime. On the other hand, Hezbollah in Lebanon could easily take advantage of the chaos and expand their sphere of influence.

Meanwhile, some MK's also voiced support today for an Operation Cast Lead 2.

Western Amman diplomat: Israel planning to launch war

From the highly reputable (sarcasm) PressTV (this is great example of their twisted reporting):

'Israel planning new war on neighbors'

Israel is reportedly planning to launch a new war to strengthen its position in the Middle East, following recent political reforms in regional states.

A Western diplomat in the Jordanian capital Amman said on Wednesday that Israel has decided to attack Syria and Lebanon following the downfall of Hosni Mubarak's regime in Egypt, which served as a great loss to Tel Aviv, the Lebanese daily Assafir reported.

The diplomat reiterated that since Tel Aviv is seriously worried about consequences of the Egyptian revolution and future developments in the region, it wants to start a new war in the Middle East in order to turn the situation back in its favor.

"Israel intends to overthrow Bashar al-Assad government in Syria in a matter of weeks after a war with Lebanon's resistance movement of Hezbollah east of Lebanon, near the border with Syria,” Assafir quoted the diplomat as saying.

He added that Israel has already informed Washington about the plan.

In response to online discussion about the reliability of this article, I'll add the following caveat: The founding purpose of Press TV is to paint Israel as a demon. Coincidentally, that's also probably the purpose of the Western diplomat in Jordan who spoke.

Most likely, Iran and Syria will instigate war against Israel, and their best bet for success (as they've always done) is to paint Israel as the villain. Either way, war is coming, but didn't we already know that?