Wednesday, June 15, 2011

Iran will attack Turkey if they intervene in Syria

In recent weeks a number of military and diplomatic developments around the Mediterranean suggest a key role for Turkey in combating Assad's violent crackdown on protests, and the subsequent Iranian-Syrian backlash in its wake. Below is a summary of the latest developments in tensions between Iran/Syria camp and Turkey/NATO/US:

Adapated from the About Crazy World Blog: 

1. Iranian/Hezbollah media says they will attack Turkey if they intervene in Syria 

2. Since Turkey is a member of NATO, if Turkey is attacked, NATO is required to respond. This could explain the recent US fleet movement in the Mediterranean.

3. Syrian tanks have pushed toward more towns near the Turkish border. On Friday of last week, after the Syrian army entered the town of Jisr al-Shughour close to the Turkey border,  al-Jazeera quoted the Turkish President Abdullah Gul as saying Turkey is "ready for all scenarios including military ones" to handle the Syrian crisis.

4. Meanwhile, Turkish Foreign Ministry has called a special meeting of Arab and Western ambassadors to discuss the situation in Syria.

5. The Arab League issued the first condemnation of Syria violence

6. According to Debka File, On Monday, June 13, the US deployed the USS Bataan amphibian air carrier strike vessel opposite Syria’s Mediterranean coast with 2,000 marines, 6 war planes, 15 attack helicopters, including new V-22 Ospreys, and 27 choppers for landing forces aboard. Also this week, US naval units went operational in the Aegean, Adriatic and Black Seas as part of the joint US-Ukrainian Sea Breeze 2011 exercise. The USS Monterrey cruiser armed with Aegis surface missile interceptors has additionally been stationed in the Black Sea. Western sources additonally report a build-up of ship-borne anti-missile missile strength in the Mediterranean basin. 

7. Turkish Prime Minister Tayyep Erdogan is averse to be seen working hand in glove militarily with any US interference in Syria. At the same time, Western intelligence sources in the Persian Gulf are sure Washington is coordinating its military movements with Ankara and that Erdogan quietly agreed to place Turkish bases at US disposal for an operation in Syria.

8. On Tuesday, Iran capped these events with three separate warnings to the Obama administration against military interference in Syria. Foreign Ministry Spokesman Ramin Mehman-Parast said Tuesday: “The Americans are not allowed to launch a military intervention in any country of the region including Syria.” Iran’s ground forces commander Brig. Gen. Kioumars Heidari added this threat: Any new military move by the US in the region will impose heavy costs on the country far greater than the costs it paid in Iraq and Afghanistan.”

See here for the latest on Turkish-Syrian relations

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