Are Turkey and Egypt aligning against Israel?

Turkey, Egypt, the Mediterranean and Israel

Israeli leaders may be simply hoping Turkey backs down, but Israel's military is reportedly taking seriously Ankara's recent threat to send warships to accompany boats to Gaza.

According to the World Tribune, Israeli military sources are preparing for the worst: potential confrontation at sea with Turkey, with Gaza at the focal point. The concern is that Turkey may join forces with Egypt to patrol the Mediterranean with the help of Turkey's naval bases in the region.

"They [Turkish warships] will be seen more frequently in those waters," Erdogan said on Sept. 6. "The eastern Mediterranean is not a strange place to us."

Erdogan is planning a visit Cairo to discuss "strategic cooperation" with the new Egypt, during which he may make a provocative visit to Gaza with his hosts' help. And earlier today, YNet reported that Turkey is planning on conducting military maneuvers with Egypt in the Mediterranean in coming months.

Israel's two best friends in the region -- Turkey and Egypt -- are now turning their backs from her, and to each other instead. The problem is that when Turkey and Egypt turn to each other, that pretty much covers the Mediterranean.

Let's pray Israel's leaders begin to take the new Middle East seriously!

Gaza-Egypt border now open

On Saturday the border between Egypt and Gaza opened permanently. Some facts:

1. Women and men under the age of 18 and over the age of 40 can leave Gaza for Egypt without a special permit, while others will require a visa.

2. The agreement between Egypt and Hamas to open the border is in violation to the Israeli-Egyptian peace agreement, which maintains that Israel must be party to such decisions.

3. Some Israeli military and academic experts are claiming an open border between Gaza and Egypt will potentially take the pressure off Israel to sustain Gaza's needs, and allow emigration from Gaza, relieving the overpopulation there. Most, however, see the move as a clear advancement in Hamas-Egypt relations and the success of Hamas pressure on the Egyptian government. Hamas needs more sophisticated weapons for its crusade against Israel, and the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt is eager to help now that Mubarak is out the way. In fact, in 2007, George Friedman of STRATFOR predicted that Hamas' deadlock in its struggle with Israel requires it to reach out to radical forces in Egypt.

4. Zvika Fogel, the chief of staff of the Southern Command of the IDF during the Second Intifada, has warned that the opening of the Rafah border with Egypt in a dangerous development and that Israel must remain involved in this border. Unchecked, this border could mean free passage for members of groups hostile to Israel such as Al Qaeda and Hezbollah to use Gaza as a launching pad, turning Gaza into a real terrorist state (r"l). Fogel even warned that the opening of the border could enable Hamas to smuggle Gilad Shalit into Sinai (h"v).

5. Meanwhile, the PA is planning to renew a subway line from Northern to Southern Gaza which has been inactive since the 1970's. (Last 2 links are in Hebrew)

Post-Mubarak Egypt boosts Hamas, in Fatah guise

Let's take a step back: Eleven weeks ago, Mubarak was thrown out of office. Now, Egypt is brokering an agreement between the extremist branch of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas, and its American-funded brother, Fatah. Why now?

Egypt has been trying for over a year to settle differences between Hamas and Fatah. While a split Palestinian leadership has advantages for some, it was not viewed positively by the Mubarak regime. Mubarak, a moderate, did not need an unhindered offshoot of its own banned internal opposition, Hamas, at its doorstep. The Mubarak regime sought a deal between Hamas and Fatah that would essentially bring Hamas under Fatah's control.

Now, take Mubarak and pro-American forces out of the government, as transpired in and around Tahrir Square in February. In the black hole which is the Egyptian political sphere, the Muslim Brotherhood is the only well-organized group to lead, whether it's made official or not. Several weeks ago, it was reported that the Brotherhood is likely to capture half, if not more, of the seats in the parliament in upcoming elections.

The Muslim Brotherhood is Hamas. Hamas is the offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood in Gaza. In other words, now that Muslim Brotherhood a la Egypt is in power, there is no more pressure on Hamas to cede concessions in a deal with Fatah. And it's not as if Fatah could care less. Fatah is no more peace-loving than Hamas; it simply chose international funding as opposed to violent struggle, but the goals and values are the same. Fatah has no hard feelings towards reconciling with Hamas--as long as the West thinks the deal leans benefits them.

In other words, with Mubarak out of the picture and the Muslim Brotherhood on the rise, Egypt can now serve as an international ally for Hamas, and Fatah has no problem joining in on the party--as long as the disguise keeps dollars and euros flowing in through the back door.

Fatah and Hamas may have overcome some of their differences, but not all: At the unity agreement signing ceremony in Cairo on Wednesday, a dispute broke out over whether Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal should sit along with Abbas on the podium, or below among other delegates.

The (alleged) text of the unity agreement has been made available by the Ramallah-based NGO Palestine Monitor.

Who will control Libya's oil?

Libya is not Egypt, and Qaddafi is not Mubarak. Qaddafi (even if he is a Jew) will cling onto power against all odds, and there is no limit to what he will do to hold on, as demonstrated by orders he gave this week to shoot indiscriminately at his own people from air and sea. While Qaddafi's intransigence is partly a personal quality, it is also related to a degree of power afforded to him by Libyan oil reserves. Libya is a key supplier of oil to Europe: Italy, for example, gets 1/5 of its oil from Libya. According to a Libyan source of Time Magazine, Qadaffi's next move is sabotaging oil:

There's been virtually no reliable information coming out of Tripoli, but a source close to the Gaddafi regime I did manage to get hold of told me the already terrible situation in Libya will get much worse. Among other things, Gaddafi has ordered security services to start sabotaging oil facilities. They will start by blowing up several oil pipelines, cutting off flow to Mediterranean ports. The sabotage, according to the insider, is meant to serve as a message to Libya's rebellious tribes: It's either me or chaos.

The question now is who will take hold of the eastern oil-rich parts of the country, which could be used as ransom by tribes against Qaddafi, or by Qaddafi against his people via Europe. On Sunday, the leader of the eastern Al-Zuwaya tribe turned against Qaddafi and threatened to cut oil exports unless there was an end to violence against protestors. Today, Al-Arabiya TV reported that Tuareg tribes took over an oil company's headquarters of in Ubari in Southwest Libya.

Egypt is already taking somewhat of a stand in the conflict by opening its border Libyan refugees. Might Egyptian forces go a step further, as they did in 1975, and intervene in solidarity with the Libyan people--and in their own economic interest--to take control of oil reserves in adjacent Eastern Libya? Would they have US backing, or perhaps even a US invitation? If successful revolutionaries in Egypt, Libya and Tunisia join forces and consolidate control of all of Northern Africa oil as well as Suez, the key Eurasian waterway which carries 2.5% of the world's oil and 8% of world trade? Who would be in charge of oil wealth in a North-African populist-Islamist alliance? Hopefully not this guy.

It's a better time than ever to find alternative energy resources - physically and spiritually.

Update: Eastern Libya has been 'freed'

Al-Qaradawi returns to Cairo

The man in the video above, Sheikh Yusuf al-Qaradawi, has been described as the spiritual leader of the "peace-loving" Muslim Brotherhood. On Friday, al-Qaradawi returned to Cairo after 50 years away, to tell the millions in Tahrir Sq "Don't fight history...You can't delay the day when it starts...The Arab world has changed." Muslim Brotherhood beepers have gone off worldwide: Egypt is leaderless, and its people are hungry for a new identity, revenge on forces that have kept it back, and power and position on the world stage. Not to mention, a state-of-the-art military straight from the U. S. of A. is desperately seeking new ownership. (But let's keep this quiet while US aid continues to stream in, k?)

Al-Qaradawi, a native of Egypt, has spent the last half-century in Qatar, where he is known for his hit Al Jazeera show "Shariah and Life". Al-Qaradawi is banned from the US (by Bill Clinton) and from Britain for supporting terrorist attacks in Iraq and Israel. In 2003, al-Qaradawi (y"s) told the BBC that he considered Palestinian suicide attacks evidence of God's justice. During his remarks at the Stockholm Mosque in Sweden, he called the fight against Israel a "necessary Jihad". In 2003, he issued a fatwa authorizing the use of women in suicide attacks. He is also the "spiritual advisor" for Hamas.

According to INN, prior to the ban, al-Qaradawi served as trustee of the Boston Mosque, which during his time featured teachings on its website on how to beat one's wife. Today, Al-Qaradawi is a trustee of the Oxford University Center for Islamic studies, and is chairman of the Board of Trustees of Islamic American Univesrity, a subsidiary of the Muslim American Society, the overt arm of the Muslim Brotherhood in America. Al-Qaradawi also heads the most influential fatwa in Europe, the European Council for Fatwa and Research.

The Western public prefers to stare googley-eyed at pictures of Arab Google Executives, supposed poster children of the Egyptian revolution, rather than stop to wonder why Tahrir Square is a place where the spiritual underpinnings of suicide bombings are enthusiastically cheered, where a female reporter was sexually abused by a 200-person mob, and where 2 million people on Friday chanted for the liberation of Jerusalem by martyrdom.

What would signify al-Qaradawi's influence in coming months? Here are his demands: 1) Free political prisoners (i.e. Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas terrorists, so they can be free to resume Jew-killing), 2) Dissolve the cabinet and transfer authority to a civilian government (which the Muslim Brotherhood will inevitably rule/influence and then rule), 3) and here's the key: Open Egypt's border crossing with Gaza (to feed Hamas with Egyptian military aid in its struggle against Israel, i.e. all the missiles too big to fit into the underground smuggling tuunels). 

The Egypt-Gaza border had been closed since Hamas, which Mubarak opposed, had taken force of Gaza in 2007. After the flotilla incident in May 2010, when Turkish activists ambushed an IDF, leading to the death of nine Turks, Mubarak began to ease the border under international pressure. After al-Qaradawi's remarks, and weeks of Hamas-Muslim Brotherhood behind-the-scenes pressure, the announcement came: On Tuesday, Egypt is opening the Gaza border in both directions, daily.

UPDATE (INN): Egyptian state television reported on Sunday that Egypt has released 108 political prisoners on the order of Prime Minister Ahmed Shafik, and that 222 prisoners would be released soon.

אין לנו על מי להישען אלא על אבינו בשמים . . .

Egypt/Gaza Border may open permanently

Smuggling tunnel between Gaza and Egypt

On Friday, Egypt opened the Rafah border crossing for the first time since protests began on January 25th. Although this time movement was only allowed from Egypt to Gaza, the Rafah crossing director said:

"Talks are underway to open Rafah crossing permanently after three days."

Make no mistake: the opening of the Gaza-Egypt border is no small side effect of the Egyptian upheaval; Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood have known for years that free passage of people, weapons and supplies from Egypt to Hamas is crucial in Hamas' struggle against Israel. Remember, half of Egyptians support Hamas. And if anyone still thinks Israel is marginal to the Egyptians' quest for 'democracy', you should probably watch this.

The Palestinian embassy in Egypt called to open traffic in both directions for movement involving medical treatment and education. Hamas, also cited the need of "patients to travel for treatement abroad." A Hamas official confirmed negotiations were underway with Egyptian authorities to permanently open the crossing.

In 2005, Israel withdrew thousands of its own citizens from the Gaza Strip and relinquished the territory to the Palestinians. In 2007, the Gaza populace elected Hamas, a terrorist organization, whose mission is the eradication of Israel. Since 2007 Israel has faced daily barrage of rockets throughout its southern region. Israel's strategy towards Hamas has been one of containment, but, according to a recent article in the LA Times, this is about to change.

Recently, Hamas leader Mahmoud Zahar said the following:

"Israel is the big loser in recent events...This is a new era. They should fear."

Why are we not hearing more about this? According to Robert Pastor, a Carter Center advisor who meets often with Hamas leaders, "They are trying to lower their profile...They don't want to provoke additional fears." Zahar backed this up himself, explaining why Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood are not broadcasting their relationship, until events calm down:

"we know the West is listening to every phone call and would try to abuse that information"

Abuse? No. Use to shape non-suicidal foreign policy? Let's hope so.

Tahrir Demonstrators Call to Liberate Jerusalem

From Angry Arab News Service (via Monodweiss):

For those who say that there are no foreign policy goals for Egyptian protesters, you need to watch this. In it, Egyptians (more than 2 million [yesterday]) in Tahrir Square chant: "To Jerusalem we are heading, Martyrs in the millions." (Yes, it rhymes in Arabic)

In response to Tom Friedman's latest Israel-bashing

In Sunday's NY Times, Tom Friedman spent the entirety of his column bashing Israel for refusing to join the world in celebrating Egyptian 'liberation'. "The children of Egypt were having their liberation moment and the children of Israel decided to side with Pharaoh – right to the very end," wrote Friedman.

Anyone familiar with Friedman's recent Middle East writing knows that he takes great pleasure imagining that Israel is situated between neighbors as rational, honest and amiable as Canada and Iceland, and that Israel chooses to isolate itself only out of some illogical, backwards paranoia. It's as if he is waiting for Israelis to just read his book and realize that the world is flat, and that hi-tech Tel Aviv can link up with hi-tech Lebanon and spread peace via Twitter.

Unfortunately, today Israel represents the realist view in international relations, because of the immediacy of the threats it faces. And Tom Friedman knows best that desperate times call for desperate measures. In 2002, Friedman won his third Pulitzer prize for his post-9/11 reporting on the worldwide terror threat. After the 2005 London bombings, Friedman expressed his
view that there is no legitimacy for terror against the West:

After every major terrorist incident, the excuse makers come out to tell us...why the terrorists acted. These excuse makers are just one notch less despicable than the terrorists and also deserve to be exposed. When you live in an open society like London, where anyone with a grievance can publish an article, run for office or start a political movement, the notion that blowing up a busload of innocent civilians in response to Iraq is somehow "understandable" is outrageous. (NYT, July 25, quoted in Thomas Friedman)

And yet when it comes to Israel, Friedman switches the logic: blowing up buses is an expression of Palestinian righteous anger, which Israel should act on, without delay. Moreover, Israel should be chastised, daily in my columns, for failing to see the writing on the wall (or rather the blood on the bus) that all we bus bombers are saying, is give peace a chance!

Rather than judge Israel on the standard Friedman lays down for the U.S. and Europe, based on the threats it faces, Friedman judges Israel as guilty for the threats it faces and denies its right to form national policy to guard itself from these threats. The basic denial of Israel's right to defend itself is the most blatant form of anti-Semitism today.  

In his March 2010 column 'Driving Drunk in Jersualem', which was highly criticized in Yediot Achronot, Friedman flipped at Israel's decision to build new homes in Ramat Shlomo during Biden's visit (The recently leaked 'Palestine Papers' showed that Erekat and his team had already agreed that Ramat Shlomo would be part of Jewish Jerusalem). "Israel needs a wake-up call. Continuing to build settlements in the West Bank, and even housing in disputed east Jerusalem, is sheer madness."

Let's get this straight: In London, blowing up a bus of innocent civilians is outrageous. In Israel, bus bombings--in addition to cafe bombings, rocket attacks, stabbings, shootings, and all forms of Palestinian violence--are expressions of righteous anger, whereas Israel's decision to build homes is 'sheer madness'. 


IS SOMETHING WRONG WITH THIS PICTURE???


Below is my letter to the editor in response to Friedman's column.

Friedman's article only deepens the gap between Israel's security dilemma and the West's wishful thinking. The Egyptian security threat to Israel is a fact, not an opinion, for hundreds of Israel's families who endured fatalities of four wars between the two countries. On Sunday, Ayman Nour, the head of the secular opposition's 'Tomorrow Party' announced: "The role of the Camp David accord has ended." (Jerusalem Post, Feb. 14th) Needless to say, the secular opposition will have no difficulty garnering the support of Islamist parties against the treaty. How exactly does Friedman propose the Jewish state respond to a real threat to its security, even if in there are humanitarian grounds to celebrate? In contrast to the security threat, which Israel knows is real, the fate of democracy in the Middle East has a less dependable track record. Bush insisted on democratic elections in the Gaza Strip after Israel withdrew from it in 2005, and today it is ruled by a terrorist organization which has closed future elections. Hezbollah has now gained control of Lebanon, and today's Iraq is an Islamic republic propped up by U.S. forces. The notion reminiscent of the Bush era that Jeffersonian democracy can be transplanted to the Middle East must be updated to account for the economic, religious and cultural barriers within countries that preclude the liberties on which democracy rests.

Glenn Beck's Caliphate Theory

Glenn Beck from FOX News has been getting a lot of flack lately for his warnings about what lies ahead in Egypt. In truth, he is doing the research that the media should be doing - if the media itself wasn't dominated by the forces he describes.

Beck has emphasized on his nightly U.S. show that between military rule and democracy lies a key transition stage, which provides ideal conditions for radical Islam, which has been waiting at the sidelines for years, to jump in and take the reins.

In bringing about 'change' Islamists and Leftists have joined forces in the name of 'revolution' - the meaning of which will be debated, after the forces in charge are dissolved. Beck claims that the Leftist-Islamist alliance is an international phenomnenon, which Europe is waking up to, and which has its eyes on America as well. Beck views Obama as a positive ally of this 'change'.

On his radio show, Beck outlined three points of convergence of Leftists and Islamists that enable their temporary 'unholy alliance' (as printed on HuffPost):

1. Groups from the hardcore socialist and Communist left and extreme Islam will work together because they are both a common enemy of Israel and the Jew.

2. Groups from the hardcore socialist and Communist left and extreme Islam will work together because they are the common enemy of capitalism and the western way of life.

3. Groups from the hardcore socialist and Communist left and extreme Islam will work to overturn relatively stable countries, because, in the status quo, they are both ostracized from power.

In this video, Beck defends his theory to FOX News' skeptical Billy O'Reilly:

Ayaan Harsi Ali on the Muslim Brotherhood

This weekend, Israel's Ma'ariv ran a great article in the weekend section on radical Islam defectorette and women's rights activist Ayaan Harsi Ali, author of the books Infidel and Nomad, and her take on Egypt. Ali is a crucial voice at this juncture, since she knows radical Islam from the inside and as a result of her deep rejection of her upbringing, is now fearless in exposing its true face. Last week Ali appeared on Andrea Mitchell Reports and spoke the truth: Don't be fooled by their public statements, the Brotherhood's fundamental goal is creating an Islamic regime in the new Egypt.

Ali also wrote an op-ed in the New York times last week, entitled 'Get Ready for the Muslim Brotherhood'.

Egypt: The end of Land for Peace?

Could the lesson from the latest events in Egypt be clearer? Land for peace is a joke in the Middle East. In 1978, Israel agreed to give the vast, strategically located and resource-rich land of the Sinai Peninsula to Egypt in exchange for the specter of 'peaceful' relations with Israel. Now, with the danger of Islamist regime change in Egypt, Israel has lost its strategic edge and is soon to be left with no peace.

Contrary the media's reports, the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas are not absent from the protests. What kind of pro-democracy protestors raid a jail holding top Hamas militants? Countless videos have revealed Western reporters awkwardly interviewing protestors who tell them: "We hate the US! We hate Israel! That's why we want Mubarak out!" Will the West and wake up and realize that it is essentially installing a government that will act out against its interests? Contrary to critics, this does not mean that Israel or people still thinking straight in the US support dictatorship. It does mean that the Bush doctrine of spreading Arab democracy is naive, and that democracy can very well lead to Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon if pursued as an end in itself.

The Muslim Brotherhood is Egypt's best-organized and largest opposition party and will inevitably play a key if not central role in the new government. The Brotherhood's stance on the peace treaty with Israel is no secret: Last Thursday, Rashad al-Bayoumi, the leader of Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood, called on any government that replaces Mubarak's regime to withdraw from its treaty obligations:

"After President Mubarak steps down and a provisional government is formed, there is a need to dissolve the peace treaty with Israel."

The Brotherhood has also called for years to stop Egypt's supply of gas to Israel, and seized the unrest last week to renew its incitement. Several days later, the pipe supplying gas to Israel exploded near El-Arish in the Sinai. The governor of El-Arish initially called it an act of terrorism. Several hours later the gas company announced it was as a leak. A leak, days after an opposition groups calls to cut off gas amidst massive political upheaval? Quite a coincidence!

Most who know the region well were not fooled by the illusion of the last 30 years of 'peace' between Israel and Egypt. While there may have been an opening for an end to all-out war with Israel so long as Egypt was ruled by a US-backed dictator, any unleashing of the people's rage today is likely to bring Islamist influence into Egypt, which does not bide well for Israel, nor the reigon, nor the world. Even Saudi Arabia is pissed off at Obama: "This isn't how you handle issues in region," said the Arab official. "Egypt needs to be treated with respect."

All Israel can hope for at this point is that Egypt will be wooed by Turkey rather than by Iran, keeping its fundamentalism in check. Regardless, Israel, and the IDF in particular, will need to readjust to the reality of an enemy on its southern border, only this time, without the Sinai buffer zone.

If anything can be gained from this painful look back, it is that there is no longer, and never has been, any evidence for the myth that giving away more land will bring Israel peace. There is huge pressure on anyone involved in this conflict to take into consideration the international community response at every step. However, a new era is approaching, an era when that Jewish people will have to learn that טוב לבטוח בה' מבטוח בנדיבים it is better to rely on Hashem than to rely on princes. Hashem wants the Jewish people in the land of Israel, and we must rectify the sin of the spies, and not fear. כל גוים סבבוני ובשם ה' אמילם all the nations have surrounded me, and in the name of Hashem I will cut them off.

The Lubavitcher Rebbe, Rabbi Menachem Mendel Schneerson, zt"l, may his merit be a blessing for all Am Yisrael, saw through the illusion of negotiations, and never feared to voice the truth about Israel. The website A True Peace has now made the prophetic statements and positions of the Rebbe on the Arab-Israeli conflict available online.

In 1979, the Rebbe stated: "The peace accords with Egypt are dangerous for the Jewish People."

In 1979, the Rebbe also warned: "Next after giving away the Sinai, will come concessions to the PLO."

This post was inspired by the Chabad weekly Sichas HaShavua, Parashas Terumah. In retrospect I was also inspired by Shiloh Musing's post on taking a sabbatical from peace talks.

Kfar Chabad, Israel

Israel-Egypt gas pipeline explodes, Rafah church bombed amidst Egypt Chaos

On Friday night, a gas pipeline supplying fuel to Jordan and Israel exploded near the El Arish port in Sinai, Egypt. Regional governor Abdel Wahab Mabrouk told Egyptian told state TV he suspected sabotage, and a reporter called the explosion a "big terrorist operation." Later, the head of the Egyptian natural gas company claimed the fire broke out as a result a gas leak. A gas leak, after the Muslim Brotherhood has been inciting its followers for years, calling to stop gas supply to Israel?

On Saturday, in an unrelated incident, the IKEA in Netanya, Israel caught on fire and burned to the ground.

Today, news emerged that Islamists massacred two Christian Coptic with the aid of their Muslim neighbors in the Sharona village in Northern Egypt last Sunday, killing 11, including children and seriously injuring four. The internet blackout kept the incident unreported until now.

On Saturday, a bomb was detonated and a cross was removed at the Holy Family Church on Saturday in Rafah, Egypt along its border with the Gaza Strip, now controlled by the terrorist group Hamas. Hamas is an outgrowth of Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood, which is gaining momentum amidst chaos in Egypt. Since the Egyptian revolt, Israel and Egypt have expressed concern about the security of the Egypt-Gaza border in a time of transition. Egypt cannot maintain security forces in Sinai to properly guard the border, and the danger only grows in the case of a pro-Hamas/Muslim Brotherhood government. For more on the relationship between Hamas and the Egyptian revolution, see here.

On Saturday, Hamas sources reported that Ayman Nofal, a senior Hamas commander, and five other Palestinian militants have now safely returned to the Gaza Strip, after 'pro-democracy protestors' raided the Abu Zaabal prison in Cairo.

It's Official: Hamas/Muslim Brotherhood Interested in Sustaining Violence & Chaos in Egypt

The seaside Jewish town Neve Dekalim in the Gaza Strip,
from which Israel disengaged in 2005, giving way to Hamas

The Egyptian daily reports that Hamas is attempting to increase the level of violence in Egyptian demonstrations (translated by MEMRI & reported by Arutz Sheva).

According to Arutz Sheva, Hamas terrorists are infiltrating Sinai to take part and egg on protests, while Hamas prisoners who have escaped from Egyptian jail are seeking safe haven back in Gaza. 

If Hamas, an offshoot of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood, is egging on protests, this is Brotherhood strategy as well. The Brotherhood are trying to create a state of violence and chaos, but they have to operate anonymously, so as not to attract the attention and scolding of the U.S. Hamas, on the other hand, are individual infiltrators from abroad and can take the blame.

The Muslim Brotherhood benefits from a state of chaos, since they are a non-governmental well-organized opposition group. Why else would protests be continuing, after Mubarak has pledged to step down in September? Do democratic protestors really want a situation where Egypt has no ruler, no regime, no leadership immediately? There is one group that has a vested interest in this state of anarchy, and that is the Muslim Brotherhood, which has no other way of taking power.

In my previous post I discuss the Gaza-Hamas-Egypt connection more in depth.

The Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt and the Palestinians

Many are claiming that the Muslim Brotherhood is a moderate and marginal force in Egyptian politics. Let's examines these claims, as well as the relevance of recent events in Egypt for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

There are two myths that are being disseminated in American media regarding the future of Egypt. The first is that the Muslim Brotherhood is a negligible force in Egyptian politics. The second is that the Brotherhood is a moderate movement that has renounced violence, distinct from 'Hamas' 'Hezbollah' 'Al Qaeda' and all the other terms that 'scare' Americans.

Regarding the Brotherhood's popularity, the first thing to keep in mind is that the group has been banned for the last 20 years, meaning that the current support of the group is likely to skyrocket once limitations on the group's campaigning and influence are lifted. Today, even before Mubarak has stepped down, even the most moderate analysts predict that the Brotherhood will take 30% of the vote in upcoming elections. According to Haroon Moghul, "It's inevitable that the brotherhood will play a political role, they are the most organied force on the ground...and they represent a decent-sized chunk of the Egyptian population." In other words, the Brotherhood is not a marginal force, and their popularity will only grow from this point forward. Many of the protests against Mubarak are accompanied by hostility towards the U.S. and Israel for entrenching Mubarak's rule, and many will seek to associate with a group that is strong enough to fend off foreign influence in process of defining Egypt post-Mubarak.

Those who claim the Brotherhood is a moderate movement largely base their claims on the group's renunciation of violence under Mubarak's rule. This renunciation however was inseparable from the need for the Brotherhood to suppress certain elements under a secular, U.S.-friendly tyrant. The essence of the Brotherhood should be judged therefore not by their guise under Mubarak, but by the identity and actions of the group on an international scale. The Muslim Brotherhood is an international movement, and is considered the most importnat Islamist movement across the Arab world. It is widely known that Hamas, the group which currently controls the Gaza Strip,, is an offshoot of the Brotherhood. According to Article Two of the Hamas charter : "The Islamic Resistance (Hamas) Movement is one of the wings of the Muslim Brothers in Palestine." Hamas has carried out dozens of suicide bombings killing women and children in Israeli cafes, hotels and outdoor cafes.

Scene from the 2001 Sbarro Pizzaria bombing in Jerusalem, in which 15 Israelis were killed

There is little doubt among anyone that the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt means a deterioration of relations with Israel, an annulment of the 1978 Camp David Accords, and most likely, war with Israel. Here is Rashad al-Bayoumi, an Egyptian Brotherhood leader on Egyptian TV: "After President Mubarak steps down and a provisional government is formed, there is a need to dissolve the peace treaty with Israel."

War against Israel is the prime example of the perfect alignment of Hamas and Brotherhood interests. According to George Friedman of STRATFOR, Hamas' deadlock in its struggle with Israel requires it to reach out to radical forces in neighboring countries, first of all Egypt, and create a regional environment more hostile to Israel. In 2007, after Hamas gained control of the Gaza Strip, American political scientist and founder of STRATFor, a geopolitical forecasting company, George Friedman, wrote the following:

Hamas' long-term strategy -- indeed, the only hope of the Palestinians who not prepared to accept a compromise with Israel -- is for Egypt to change its tune toward Israel, which could very well involve energizing Islamist forces in Egypt and bringing about the fall of the Mubarak regime. That is the key to any solution for Hamas. (Friedman, 'The Geopolitics of the Palestinians', STRATFOR, June 19, 2007)

While it may be a stretch to say that Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood are forces are behind current events in Egypt, it is highly probable that both groups will take advantage of the current chaos in order to establish an an ally for Hamas in its struggle against Israel and beyond. The Muslim Brotherhood are well-prepared for the post-Mubarak era, and Hamas are their first beneficary.

Democratic protests?

From a recent Pew poll in Egypt:

30% favorable towards Hezbollah
49% favorable towards Hamas
20% favorable towards al Qaeda

82% support stoning for those who commit adultery
77% support whippings and hands cut off for robbery
84% support the death penalty for a Muslim who changes his religion

In response to the question: Do you support “modernizers” or “Islamists­”?

27% support modernizer­s
59% support Islamists

Democratic protests, or the Muslim Brotherhoo­d wearing its liberal mask for the enamored western media?

Stats from http://bit­.ly/dJKe7b

Egypt Protests, Hamas and Israel

Although the U.S. probably had a role in the source of the current protests in Egypt, the situation is ultimately heading towards creating a power vaccuum which is most likely to be filled by the Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt's largest organized opposition.

The Muslim Brotherhood has close relations with Hamas, which is currently ruling in the Gaza Strip. The following was reported today by STRATFOR, a geopolitical forecasting company:

The following is a report from a STRATFOR source in Hamas. Hamas, which formed in Gaza as an outgrowth of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood (MB), has an interest in exaggerating its role and coordination with the MB in this crisis. The following information has not been confirmed. Nonetheless, there is a great deal of concern building in Israel and the United States in particular over the role of the MB in the demonstrations and whether a political opening will be made for the Islamist organization in Egypt.

The Egyptian police are no longer patrolling the Rafah border crossing into Gaza. Hamas armed men are entering into Egypt and are closely collaborating with the MB. The MB has fully engaged itself in the demonstrations, and they are unsatisfied with the dismissal of the Cabinet. They are insisting on a new Cabinet that does not include members of the ruling National Democratic Party.

Security forces in plainclothes are engaged in destroying public property in order to give the impression that many protesters represent a public menace. The MB is meanwhile forming people’s committees to protect public property and also to coordinate demonstrators’ activities, including supplying them with food, beverages and first aid.

The protests in Egypt began days after Al Jazeera began publicizing documents humiliating Palestinian leaders in the context of talks with Israel.

Speaking today in Egypt, the Jordanian Muslim Brotherhood leader warned that unrest could spread throughout the Arab world and topple leaders allied with the the West. As Atlas Shrugged points out, the Muslim Brotherhood is busy whitewashing its image in the Western press: "A new era of freedom and democracy is dawning in the Middle East and Arab world," Muslim Brotherhood veteran Kamel El-Helbawy said to reporters in London today. He also told them that an Islamist government would pose no threat to the West. This coming from an organization who states as its aim "eliminating and destroying Western civilization from within and sabatoging its miserable house."

Is the West buying it? The Obama administration is currently supporting the protests' call for reforms, after pressure from analysts to not end up on the 'wrong side' (i.e. the 'left' side) of the conflict. In the media, the Daily Beast tells us not to fear the Muslim Brotherhood.

One thing is clear: Egypt is heading for a power vaccuum, and the Muslim Brotherhood is its largest organized opposition. The question is, where will Obama and the EU stand?